大选专栏 (六) ：多数政党与联合政府
Election 2015: ruling party and coalition government
来源: Bob Mok
在大选即将来临之际，Bob Mok的专栏文章将继续向读者介绍席位分布及主要政党优劣势等基本知识。
Bob Mok’s column covers the basic knowledge of the upcoming election: from seat distribution across the country to the strength and weakness of the major parties.
读者欲参照前文可点击：
Please refer to an earlier article for this series of discussions - http://096.ca/news/550866
我们先来了解一下加拿大议会的历史。在第二次世界大战后，加国的执政党一直是联邦自由党或联邦保守党（或该党其他形式）。与此同时，“议会反对党”也一直是由这两个政党轮流担任，除了1993-1997年间是由魁人政团担任，以及2011年至今是由联邦新民主党担任。
Let us look at the Parliamentary History of Canada. After the Second World War, the governing party has always been either the Liberals or the Conservatives (or deviants of that Party). The same two parties have also been the “Parliamentary Opposition Party” except in 1993-1997 when it was the Bloc Quebecois and in 2011 to present – the New Democratic Party.
如前文所述，各政党将在即将来临的大选中角逐338个议席。任何想要赢得“多数”政府从而可以避免在未来四年出现倒台危机的政党都必须确保在大选之夜赢得170个议席。而少数政府则需要依靠另一个政党的支持才能避免倒台，尤其是在每年通过财政预算案时。这也意味着少数政府不得不通过在预算案上作出让步，将某些计划推迟执行以及实施一些举措以 安抚对其予以支持的政党。
As mentioned before, there are 338 seats to be contested in this upcoming election. Any party wishing to win a “Majority” and avoid being toppled during the next four years will have to secure 170 seats on election night. A minority government will need one of the other parties to support them to prevent a defeat, particularly during the passage of the yearly budget. This would mean that concessions have to be made to the budget and programs will have to be delayed and others added to appease the supporting party.
大选的另一种结果是组建联合政府。如果在大选中胜出的政党未能赢得170个议席，而其他一些政党议席相加后总数超过胜出政党，他们就可以联手组建联合政府。但在加拿大联邦成立后（按照定义）尚未出现过联合政府执政！联邦自由党已经宣布在此次大选中拒绝与其他政党组建任何联合政府。鉴于民调显示联邦自由党并非支持率领先，下届议会选举出现联合政府的可能性实际上为零。
One other scenario will be the forming of a coalition government. If the leading party on election night does not get 170 seats, then any number of parties combining their total seats that will exceed the front running party can joined together to form a coalition government. This has never happened (by definition) after confederation! For this election, the Liberals already announced their refusal to form any coalition government with other parties. Given the fact that the Liberal Party is not the front running party at the polls, the chances of a Coalition government for the next Parliament is effectively zero.
那么，基于过去几届联邦大选三大主要政党各自拥有哪些传统优势？他们的选票在十个省份和三个特区间的分布情况如何？此前的民调又透露出什么信息呢？
So, where will the traditional strengths of each of the 3 major parties based on the last few Federal Elections? How will their votes be distributed amongst the ten provinces and three Territories? What did the early Polls say?
下面我们就来详细了解一下从东海岸至西海岸的全国各省份及特区的选情格局：
Let us examine the provinces and Territories going across the country from the East Coast to the West coast:
大西洋省份（32个议席）——其中包括纽芬兰及拉布拉多省、爱德华王子岛省、新斯科舍省以及新布伦瑞克省。
Atlantic Provinces (32 seats) - Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.
从传统上讲，选民会投票支持当前执掌省府的政党。目前在四个大西洋省份中有三个是自由党省府执政（纽芬兰省是保守党省府）。近期许多民调显示联邦自由党在大西洋省份一马当先，联邦新民主党(NDP)支持率位居第二，领先于联邦保守党(CPC)。
Traditionally, citizens vote for the party running the provincial government of the day. Three out of the four are Provincial Liberal governments (Newfoundland is Conservative). Many of the recent polls put the Liberals first and New Democratic Party (NDP) as second, ahead of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
魁北克省（78个议席）——在上世纪90年代，魁省省民曾借投票支持魁人政团从当时执政政府处争取更多利益，并导致当局采取行动满足他们对联邦拨款和政款治利益的欲求。魁人政团也因此一度登上正式“反对”党宝座。但是一个一心只想获得独立，对其他国家事务全无兴趣的正式反对党会的现状可想而知！在其他一些国家，这种政党会被视为背叛颠覆力量，其成员会遭解散和逮捕。
Quebec (78 seats) – At one time during the 90’s, Quebecers voted for the Bloc Quebecois to gain advantages from the ruling government of the day resulting in actions to pacify their appetite for Federal monies and political gains. At one time, the Bloc Quebecois actually became the “Opposition” party. Just imagine an opposition party whose goal is to gain independence with no interests in the rest of the country’s affairs! In some other country, this would be considered a treacherous and subversive force and disbanded and arrested.
在上届大选中，联邦新民主党赢得魁省省民青睐，而魁人政团却一败涂地。魁人政团在魁省的议席数量从47席骤降至4席，而联邦新民主党在前党领林顿的领导下一举赢得该省59个议席。近期民调显示，在此次大选中新党领唐民凯将会率领联邦新民主党继续横扫魁省议席，而在魁省位居第二的联邦自由党支持率远远落后于联邦新民主党。
In the last election, the Quebec citizens went with the NDP and wiped the Bloc representation clean. It went from 47 to 4 seats. The NDP won 59 seats under their leader Jack Layton. The NDP under new leader Thomas Mulcair continued to gain ground in this Province with the Liberals following far behind in the polls.
安省（121个议席）——在上届大选（2011年）中，联邦保守党在安省囊获73个议席，比2008年的51席大幅增加。联邦保守党也因此得以组建多数政府。对于任何志在赢得下届联邦大选的政党来说，拿下拥有最多议席的安省都是成功的关键。
Ontario (121 seats) – In the last election (2011), the Conservatives captured 73 seats, up from 51 in 2008. This allowed them to form the Majority government. Ontario, with its large number of seats holds the key to any Party’s ambitions to form the next Federal Government.
安省民调结果显示联邦保守党目前仍处于领先地位。而执政自由党省府糟糕的财政表现和接二连三的丑闻可能会继续令联邦保守党受益。联邦自由党在安省的支持率虽位居第二，但却远远落后于联邦保守党，与排名第三的联邦新民主党不相上下。
The Conservatives are still ahead in the Ontario Polls. The ruling Liberal Government’s poor financial records and scandals may continue to benefit the Conservatives. The Liberals are a distant second and the NDP is closing in on them.
在下一篇文章中，我们将继续介绍其他省份的选情格局。
Next time, we will continue to look at the other Provinces across the nation.
Bob Mok’s column covers the basic knowledge of the upcoming election: from seat distribution across the country to the strength and weakness of the major parties.
读者欲参照前文可点击：
Please refer to an earlier article for this series of discussions - http://096.ca/news/550866
我们先来了解一下加拿大议会的历史。在第二次世界大战后，加国的执政党一直是联邦自由党或联邦保守党（或该党其他形式）。与此同时，“议会反对党”也一直是由这两个政党轮流担任，除了1993-1997年间是由魁人政团担任，以及2011年至今是由联邦新民主党担任。
Let us look at the Parliamentary History of Canada. After the Second World War, the governing party has always been either the Liberals or the Conservatives (or deviants of that Party). The same two parties have also been the “Parliamentary Opposition Party” except in 1993-1997 when it was the Bloc Quebecois and in 2011 to present – the New Democratic Party.
如前文所述，各政党将在即将来临的大选中角逐338个议席。任何想要赢得“多数”政府从而可以避免在未来四年出现倒台危机的政党都必须确保在大选之夜赢得170个议席。而少数政府则需要依靠另一个政党的支持才能避免倒台，尤其是在每年通过财政预算案时。这也意味着少数政府不得不通过在预算案上作出让步，将某些计划推迟执行以及实施一些举措以 安抚对其予以支持的政党。
As mentioned before, there are 338 seats to be contested in this upcoming election. Any party wishing to win a “Majority” and avoid being toppled during the next four years will have to secure 170 seats on election night. A minority government will need one of the other parties to support them to prevent a defeat, particularly during the passage of the yearly budget. This would mean that concessions have to be made to the budget and programs will have to be delayed and others added to appease the supporting party.
大选的另一种结果是组建联合政府。如果在大选中胜出的政党未能赢得170个议席，而其他一些政党议席相加后总数超过胜出政党，他们就可以联手组建联合政府。但在加拿大联邦成立后（按照定义）尚未出现过联合政府执政！联邦自由党已经宣布在此次大选中拒绝与其他政党组建任何联合政府。鉴于民调显示联邦自由党并非支持率领先，下届议会选举出现联合政府的可能性实际上为零。
One other scenario will be the forming of a coalition government. If the leading party on election night does not get 170 seats, then any number of parties combining their total seats that will exceed the front running party can joined together to form a coalition government. This has never happened (by definition) after confederation! For this election, the Liberals already announced their refusal to form any coalition government with other parties. Given the fact that the Liberal Party is not the front running party at the polls, the chances of a Coalition government for the next Parliament is effectively zero.
那么，基于过去几届联邦大选三大主要政党各自拥有哪些传统优势？他们的选票在十个省份和三个特区间的分布情况如何？此前的民调又透露出什么信息呢？
So, where will the traditional strengths of each of the 3 major parties based on the last few Federal Elections? How will their votes be distributed amongst the ten provinces and three Territories? What did the early Polls say?
下面我们就来详细了解一下从东海岸至西海岸的全国各省份及特区的选情格局：
Let us examine the provinces and Territories going across the country from the East Coast to the West coast:
大西洋省份（32个议席）——其中包括纽芬兰及拉布拉多省、爱德华王子岛省、新斯科舍省以及新布伦瑞克省。
Atlantic Provinces (32 seats) - Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.
从传统上讲，选民会投票支持当前执掌省府的政党。目前在四个大西洋省份中有三个是自由党省府执政（纽芬兰省是保守党省府）。近期许多民调显示联邦自由党在大西洋省份一马当先，联邦新民主党(NDP)支持率位居第二，领先于联邦保守党(CPC)。
Traditionally, citizens vote for the party running the provincial government of the day. Three out of the four are Provincial Liberal governments (Newfoundland is Conservative). Many of the recent polls put the Liberals first and New Democratic Party (NDP) as second, ahead of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
魁北克省（78个议席）——在上世纪90年代，魁省省民曾借投票支持魁人政团从当时执政政府处争取更多利益，并导致当局采取行动满足他们对联邦拨款和政款治利益的欲求。魁人政团也因此一度登上正式“反对”党宝座。但是一个一心只想获得独立，对其他国家事务全无兴趣的正式反对党会的现状可想而知！在其他一些国家，这种政党会被视为背叛颠覆力量，其成员会遭解散和逮捕。
Quebec (78 seats) – At one time during the 90’s, Quebecers voted for the Bloc Quebecois to gain advantages from the ruling government of the day resulting in actions to pacify their appetite for Federal monies and political gains. At one time, the Bloc Quebecois actually became the “Opposition” party. Just imagine an opposition party whose goal is to gain independence with no interests in the rest of the country’s affairs! In some other country, this would be considered a treacherous and subversive force and disbanded and arrested.
在上届大选中，联邦新民主党赢得魁省省民青睐，而魁人政团却一败涂地。魁人政团在魁省的议席数量从47席骤降至4席，而联邦新民主党在前党领林顿的领导下一举赢得该省59个议席。近期民调显示，在此次大选中新党领唐民凯将会率领联邦新民主党继续横扫魁省议席，而在魁省位居第二的联邦自由党支持率远远落后于联邦新民主党。
In the last election, the Quebec citizens went with the NDP and wiped the Bloc representation clean. It went from 47 to 4 seats. The NDP won 59 seats under their leader Jack Layton. The NDP under new leader Thomas Mulcair continued to gain ground in this Province with the Liberals following far behind in the polls.
安省（121个议席）——在上届大选（2011年）中，联邦保守党在安省囊获73个议席，比2008年的51席大幅增加。联邦保守党也因此得以组建多数政府。对于任何志在赢得下届联邦大选的政党来说，拿下拥有最多议席的安省都是成功的关键。
Ontario (121 seats) – In the last election (2011), the Conservatives captured 73 seats, up from 51 in 2008. This allowed them to form the Majority government. Ontario, with its large number of seats holds the key to any Party’s ambitions to form the next Federal Government.
安省民调结果显示联邦保守党目前仍处于领先地位。而执政自由党省府糟糕的财政表现和接二连三的丑闻可能会继续令联邦保守党受益。联邦自由党在安省的支持率虽位居第二，但却远远落后于联邦保守党，与排名第三的联邦新民主党不相上下。
The Conservatives are still ahead in the Ontario Polls. The ruling Liberal Government’s poor financial records and scandals may continue to benefit the Conservatives. The Liberals are a distant second and the NDP is closing in on them.
在下一篇文章中，我们将继续介绍其他省份的选情格局。
Next time, we will continue to look at the other Provinces across the nation.
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