中国会引发全球危机？

 

                      

 

 

近期出现的全球股市暴跌实际上酝酿已久。早在两年前，随着全球需求萎缩，其他亚洲国家的相对竞争力普遍提高，同时中国飞速发展的经济出现急刹车并积累下过高债务，股市危机的迹象就已经越来越明显。

The recent steep slides on global stock markets have been a long time in the making. As early as two years ago, it was becoming obvious that in addition to the contraction of global demand, as well as the general increase in the relative competitiveness of other Asian countries, China’s rapid rise was coming to a screeching halt and leaving excessive debt in its wake.  

 

在最近几周，中国股市经历了近20年来最大单周跌幅，重挫逾15%。中国股市的剧烈震荡进一步告诫人们：中国仍是一个新兴市场，其金融系统还不够成熟。

In recent weeks, the Chinese market experienced its biggest weekly fall in 20 years, tumbling more than 15%. This volatility serves as a further warning: China is still an emerging market, and it has an immature financial system.

 

过度负债

Excessive debt

目前，中国各个经济行业都受到过度负债的影响，从房地产业、地方政府到国有或部分国有企业无一幸免。

Excessive debt is infecting every sector of China’s economy, from real estate and local governments to state-run or partially government-controlled companies. 

多年来中国大多数大型公司一直顺风顺水，而这主要要归功于大量政府补贴。但与此同时，由于这些企业过分依赖政府补贴，它们并没有进行资本积累。此外，主要是由共产党控制的中国银行不断人为压低利率以刺激借贷，也导致中国所有行业面临越来越严重的过度借贷问题。

Most large companies in China were on a roll for a number of years, in large part thanks to subsidies from the government. But, at the same time, they were not accruing capital because their activities were so dependent on subsidies. Chinese banks, which are mainly controlled by the Communist party, compounded matters by giving credit at artificially low interest rates fueling excessive debt in all of the country’s sectors. 

想要了解中国企业的过度负债从何而来，该国许多大型开发项目就是最好的例证。通过低利率贴息贷款融资的中国很多基建项目都收益率低下并且资本生产率疲弱。而大部分此类贷款都是通过名为“影子银行”的系统发放，这意味着信贷产品都是直接出售给个人，并未经过正规的银行贷款发放流程。

Many of China’s largescale development projects are perfect examples of how excessive debt has piled up. Infrastructure projects, funded by subsidized loans with low interest rates, yield low profitability and weak capital productivity. Much of this credit is given through a system called "shadow banking", meaning it does not go through normal bank loans; credit products are sold directly to individuals.

 

目前，中国政府部门的负债，尤其是地方和区域级政府的债务已经高得惊人。而导致他们陷入当前困境的最直接原因，就是过度依赖基建项目。但是由于各地可建的道路数量有限，这种现象不可能永远持续下去。

Public sector debt, particularly at the local and regional levels, has been enormous. They have gotten in their current predicament by over-relying on infrastructure projects. This cannot last forever as there are only so many roads one can build. 

 

人口和环保困境

Demography and environment woes

除了债务高企和资本生产率低下，中国还面临其他许多问题。由于独生子女政策执行时间过长，中国有限的就业人口将不得不承担大量老年人口的养老重担。与此同时，中国的社会服务开支将会呈现指数级上涨，尤其是教育和健保方面的开支。此外，中国政府的预算赤字也达到惊人规模。据官方估计，2016年中国预算赤字率将达到3%或更高水平，但实际赤字率会升至多高则是仁者见仁，智者见智。

China also has a number of other problems on top of its high level of debt and low capital productivity. Due to the one child policy being in place for so long, its massive elderly population will have to be sustained by a much smaller working population. Social spending by the state will only increase exponentially, especially on education and health. The Chinese government also has a very high budget deficit. It is officially estimated to be at 3% or more in 2016, but how high it will really climb is anyone’s guess. 

 

最后但同样重要的一点是，众所周知中国的环境污染问题已经成为中国和世界其他国家民众的心头大患，曾经去过北京或是看过在北京所拍照片的人，想必都会对北京居民带着防污染口罩出行的景象留下深刻印象。

Last but not least, the country’s environmental problems are a well-known major burden to China and the rest of the world. Anyone who’s ever been to or seen pictures from Beijing is familiar with the city’s residents making their way around the city in anti-pollution masks. 

中国当局在未来将会面临一些异常艰难的抉择。中国从经济预算上看仍属穷国，但却面临着富国的种种问题。由于中国现行税制陈旧失衡，其显然亟需结构性改革。任何一个国家都不可能鱼与熊掌兼得。如果中国想要发展市场经济，那就必须明白干预市场注定会失败，其必须学会接受开放市场经济所带来的市场波动。而我们目前正在经历的市场波动恰恰印证了许多人早已知道的事实，那就是中国政府根本无力对控制经济。

Chinese authorities face some very tough choices ahead. China is currently exhibiting many “rich country” problems while it has the budget of a “poor country”. A structural reform of its tax system is now clearly needed; its current system is archaic and biased. No country can have its cake and eat it too. If China wants a market economy, then it must understand that intervening in markets is bound to fail, and it must learn to accept the volatility that comes with any open market economy. The volatility we are currently experiencing in the markets only confirms what many already know: Beijing doesn’t have that much control over the economy anyways. 

 

欧洲在金融危机爆发后的数年内发生了巨变，而中国在未来几年很可能经历非常相似的演变——中国的商业模式和银行的资产负债表将会迎来重大调整。但这并不意味着中国经济将会崩塌，恰恰相反，中国经济将会继续保持增长，不过步伐将会大大放缓。

In the coming years, China will most likely go through a very similar scenario as Europe has in the years after financial crisis -- serious restructuring in Chinese business models and banks’ balance sheets. This does not mean that the Chinese economy will collapse. Far from it, we will see much lower growth rates, but there will still be growth.

 

影响有限

Contained effects

 

由于中国在国际舞台上具有举足轻重的地位，这也意味着中国所面临的问题会给世界经济带来风险。但是，由于中国带来的负面影响将会相对有限，像2008-2009年那样惨烈的金融危机不会再次上演。

China’s sheer size and role on the global stage means that its problems will create risk for the global economy. However, don’t expect a crisis of 2008-2009 proportions. Any damage China will cause will be relatively contained. 

注：Nuno Fernandes是瑞士洛桑国际管理学院（IMD）的金融学教授，其在该学院负责战略金融课程、高管财务管理课程，以及IMD新推出的"Global Leadership in the Cloud"  课程。此外，他还著有《高管之金融：管理者的实用手册》一书。

Nuno Fernandes is Professor of Finance at IMD, where he directs the Strategic Finance program and also Finance Fundamentals for Executives, a new IMD "Global Leadership in the Cloud" program. He is the author of Finance for Executives: A Practical Guide for Managers.