大起大落: 我家小区的房价

Toronto has enjoyed a decade-long real estate boom, as the house price surge continues to cross into jaw dropping territories. The seemingly perpetual growth has led many people believe that property investments are both lucrative and safe, and as a result, investors have jumped on the bandwagon in droves. 

 

这一房市抢购狂潮也席卷了大部分业主为亚裔的我所居住的小区。有不少邻居都在这一街区内购买了数套房屋，而其中一位住户更是在短短一英里的距离内一口气买下三套房。

The buying frenzy has also swept through my neighbourhood – where most homeowners are Asians. Quite a few of neighbours have bought several homes on the street, with one resident purchasing three properties within a mile’s distance. 

 

几乎所有持有多套房产的业主都是在过去10年内移民加国的华裔新移民。我能理解这种购房狂热背后的心理状态，因为中国已持续数十年的房市繁荣造就了房地产金矿，几乎所有中国居民都成了房地产投资者，其中更有许多人都手执多套房产。

Almost all of the multiple property purchasers are newcomers from China, who came to Canada within the last ten years. I understand the psychology behind this homeownership mania. China’s decades-long housing market boom has created properties bonanza, and turned almost every citizen into a property investor, with many owning multiple properties. 

 

一个中国朋友告诉我：“你买的房子越多就越富有，但关键是你要买入后不要轻易出手……如果过早将它们抛出，那将会损失惨重。”

“The more properties you grab the more fortune you make,” a Chinese friend told me, “but buy and hold is the key… if you sell them too early, you will end up losing badly.”

 

他还向我讲述了他的一个朋友的不幸。此人于2000年代初在中国的一个二线城市购买了一套两居室公寓，此后随着房市急剧上扬，这套公寓的价格也飙升了数十万元，于是他决定将房屋出手套现获利。但是，高涨的银行账户数额带来的喜悦转瞬即逝，因为他很快就发现自己那套公寓价格在短短几个月后就再攀新高，当时他银行账户内的所有收入只能买得起一套面积仅有其已售公寓¾的房屋了。

He then told me a sad story of one of his friends, who bought a two-bedroom apartment unit in a second tier city of China in the early 2000s. The price of the property surged by hundreds of thousands RMB amid a sharp market rally, and he decided to cash in the profit by selling it. But the joy of seeing his bank account surge was short lived as he found just a few months later that the price of his unit went up another notch: by then, all the proceeds in his bank account could afford only ¾ size of the unit he had sold. 

 

我的朋友称：“也就是说，转瞬间他损失掉一间卧室！”

“Basically, he lost a bedroom by doing that!” said the friend.  

 

但是，相信房市将会无止境上涨显然是错误的，房地产金矿并不是永不枯竭的宝藏。实际上，尽管加国房地产市场一直被视为安全避风港，但市场波动仍在所难免，并且同样会滋生泡沫。

But the belief that the housing market will be in perpetual growth is a misguided perception, and a property bonanza will not last forever. In fact, housing markets in Canada, despite its safe haven status, are not immune to volatility and are prone to bubbles.

 

我在1990年代初来到加国时所了解到的第一大新闻就是 1980年代末的房市泡沫破灭。在房市泡沫高峰期前，五年期固定房贷利率升至12.7%，借贷成本也随之大幅飙升。失业率猛增，加之移民流入量下降最终引爆房市泡沫破裂，导致大多伦多地区房价一泻千里。其中多伦多市中心受创最为严重，房价暴跌近50%。在利率上调后，许多家庭投资者因为不堪债务重负而被迫止赎房屋。

When I arrived in Canada in the early 1990’s, the first thing I learned was the housing bubble burst in the late 1980’s. During the peak of the bubble, the borrowing costs soared as 5 year fixed mortgage rates reached 12.7%. A spike of unemployment and a drop in the inflow of immigrants triggered the burst of bubble, leaving home prices in GTA collapsed. Prices in downtown Toronto, the area that was hit the worst, suffered a 50% loss in prices. When interest rates skyrocketed, many home investors burdened by the heavy debt load were forced to have their homes foreclosed.

 

我家小区内的大多数房屋都是建于1970年代，第一批买家的购房价格约为$40-50万元。但是目前这些房屋价格都已经超过$100万元。我家住房的原房主是一名周姓妇女，她在1980年代初花$40万元买下这栋房屋，之后房价便经历了大起大落。在1980年代末房市崩溃时，这栋房屋价格跌至只有$20万元，此后房价又慢慢攀升至$30万元以上。我至今还记得当我们报出高于底价的购买价格时周太太及其经纪溢于言表的欣喜之情，尽管我们的报价仍低于她当初的买价。

Most of the homes in my neighbourhood were built in the 1970’s, where the first buyers paid around $40-50,000. Today, those same homes are worth more than $1 million. Mrs. Chow, the previous owners of my house, bought it for $400,000 in the early 1980s. Since then the house price embarked on a journey that has been on a roller coaster ride. It dropped to only $200,000 during the housing crash in the late 1980’s, and then slowly climbed up to over $300,000. I still remember the delight and joy that she and her agent expressed as we offered a price that was much higher than the bottom, but still lower than the price at which she purchased.

 

在我们入住这栋房屋数年后，已年届中年的周太太曾前来探访他们的旧居。了解近年来房价一路狂飙后的周太太当时热泪盈眶，似乎激动难掩。我不知道她是出于怀旧还是后悔，但我唯一能确定的是如果她用当时的卖价再买回其旧居，她将损失掉数间卧室。

Ms. Chow, a middle aged couple from Hong Kong came to visit their old home once several years after we moved in. Knowing that the price had gone up exorbitantly, she seemed quite emotional as tears welled up in her eyes. Nostalgic or regret? I can’t say. But the only thing I know was that if she wanted to buy back the home, she would have lost several bedrooms now with the proceeds she got from us. 

 

这是不是给过热房市敲响警钟，显示跌宕起伏的房市步入衰退期？ 根据多伦多房市以往的波动规律，只有傻子才会相信房价上升会永远持续下去。

But could it be a red flag for an overheated market, or a sign that we are heading for the downhill side of the roller coaster? Given the turbulent history of Toronto housing market, only a fool would believe that the price surge will go on forever.