编者按：联邦五选区补选的结果并不出人意料，联邦自由党的“空降候选人”伍凤仪拿下Markham Thornhill选区。但Bob Mok撰文写道，尽管所有补选选区的席位均未易主，但联邦自由党在各选区的得票率却有所下降。
Editor’s Note: The results of five federal byelections were hardly a surprise, with Liberals “parachuted candidate” Mary Ng wining in Markham Thornhill. While no seats changed hands in any of the ridings, the Liberals lost share of votes across the board -- writes Bob Mok.
The hastily called by-election on April 3, 2017 came to a stand-off. No changes in the 5 ridings for the two major parties. The ruling Liberal Party put forward 3 women candidates and they all won as expected. The Conservatives added one female MP to their party on by-election night.
What have we observed leading up to this by-election? We saw the “parachuting” of candidates and various tactics to discourage the participation of other non-anointed nominees. We saw a Prime Minister actively involved in by-elections to the extent of participating in local campaigning and creating photo-op's. In Canada, Prime Ministers do not routinely campaign in by-elections.
The Liberal Party's share of the vote go down in every riding (previous election results in parentheses):
1）安省Markham-Thornhill选区——联邦自由党得票率51.4% (55.7%)；联邦保守党得票率39.0% (32.3%)。
1)Markham-Thornhill, Ont – Liberals 51.4% (55.7%), Conservatives 39.0% (32.3%).
2）安省Ottawa-Vanier选区——联邦自由党得票率51.3% (57.5%)；联邦新民主党得票率28.9% (19.2%)。
2)Ottawa-Vanier, Ont – Liberals 51.3% (57.5%), NDP 28.9% (19.2%).
3）魁省St Laurent选区——联邦自由党得票率59.1% (61.6%)；联邦保守党得票率19.5% (19.5%)。
3)St Laurent, Quebec – Liberals 59.1% (61.6%), Conservatives 19.5% (19.5%).
4）阿省Calgary Heritage选区——联邦保守党得票率71.5% (63.7%)；联邦自由党得票率21.7% (25.9%)。
4)Calgary Heritage, Alberta – Conservatives 71.5% (63.7%), Liberals 21.7% (25.9%)
5）阿省Calgary Midnapore选区——联邦保守党得票率77.2% (66.7%)；联邦自由党得票率17.0% (22.6%)。
5)Calgary Midnapore, Alberta – Conservatives 77.2% (66.7%), Liberals 17.0% (22.6%).
As we can see from the results, the winning party in each riding held onto their over 50% majority. Across the five ridings, the Liberals' vote share dropped by an average of 4.7 points. That was a steeper loss than the NDP's average 2.2-point decline. The Conservatives gained an average of 4.2 points compared to their support in the 2015 federal election. This is a reversal of the trends exhibited between the 2011 and 2015 votes, when the Liberals made gains in 13 of 15 by-elections and the Conservatives suffered losses in all of them.
Voter turnout was low on Monday April 3 as expected, ranging from 27.5 per cent in Markham–Thornhill to 34.1 per cent in Ottawa–Vanier. Accordingly, the big parties lost votes in every riding — and the Liberals lost vote share across the board.
The Conservatives also put up good numbers in Markham–Thornhill, the kind of GTA riding the Conservatives will need to win in the future to form a majority government. The party captured 39 per cent of the vote, up 6.7 points and was their best performance since 1997 — when the Liberals last lost the riding.
In the two francophone ridings Ottawa–Vanier and Saint-Laurent, the Conservatives put up worse results. The party held its 19.5% vote share in the Saint-Laurent seat. In Ottawa–Vanier, the Conservatives were down 3.7 points, their worst performance there since 1968.
Is it possible the Conservative leadership race has helped boost the party elsewhere, but the lack of French-language skills among the field of 14 candidates for the top job (including one of the front-runners, Kevin O'Leary) may not be doing the party favours in ridings with large francophone populations?
值得注意的是，尽管Calgary Heritage选区的席位此前是由前总理哈珀把持，Calgary Midapore选区的席位则是由前国防部长康尼把持，但他们名气相对较低的继任者却将保守党在这两个选区的得票率都提升到了70%以上。
It is noteworthy to know that Calgary Heritage used to be Ex-Prime Minister Stephen Harper's seat and Calgary Midapore was Ex-Minister of National Defence Jason Kenny's seat, yet their relatively unknown successors increased the party's share of the vote to more than 70% in those ridings.
On the other hand, the by-election results indicate that the NDP is in no shape to compete seriously in any of the contested ridings previously dominated by the two Major parties. As for the other fringe parties like the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois, their best hope is for the “Proportional Representation” system to come into play – a system that died with the dropping of electoral reform promised by Prime Minister in the last Federal Election.
The popularity of Conservatives in Ontario and Alberta in this Federal by-election should give the ruling provincial parties in these provinces a warning. The Ontario provincial election is scheduled for next year and time is running out for Premier Wynne.
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