五选区补选结果揭晓 联邦自由党各选区投票率下降

 

 

 

 

于2017年4月3日举行的仓促补选旗鼓相当。两大主要政党都守住了阵地，五选区均未易主。联邦执政自由党派出的三名女性候选人全都如预期胜选。联邦保守党阵营则在补选当晚新添了一名女性国会议员。

 

The hastily called by-election on April 3, 2017 came to a stand-off. No changes in the 5 ridings for the two major parties. The ruling Liberal Party put forward 3 women candidates and they all won as expected. The Conservatives added one female MP to their party on by-election night. 

 

在此次补选前我们都看到了什么？我们看到自由党“空降”候选人，以及想方设法阻止其他非钦点候选人参选的竞选手段；我们看到总理现身当地的竞选活动，以为补选积极造势及进行大肆宣传。而在加拿大，总理通常都不会参与补选的竞选活动。

 

What have we observed leading up to this by-election? We saw the “parachuting” of candidates and various tactics to discourage the participation of other non-anointed nominees. We saw a Prime Minister actively involved in by-elections to the extent of participating in local campaigning and creating photo-op's. In Canada, Prime Ministers do not routinely campaign in by-elections. 

 

在此次补选中，联邦自由党在各个选区的得票率均有所下降（括号中为上次选举结果）：

The Liberal Party's share of the vote go down in every riding (previous election results in parentheses):

 

1）安省Markham-Thornhill选区——联邦自由党得票率51.4% (55.7%)；联邦保守党得票率39.0% (32.3%)。

1)Markham-Thornhill, Ont – Liberals 51.4% (55.7%), Conservatives 39.0% (32.3%).

 

2）安省Ottawa-Vanier选区——联邦自由党得票率51.3% (57.5%)；联邦新民主党得票率28.9% (19.2%)。

2)Ottawa-Vanier, Ont – Liberals 51.3% (57.5%), NDP 28.9% (19.2%).

 

3）魁省St Laurent选区——联邦自由党得票率59.1% (61.6%)；联邦保守党得票率19.5% (19.5%)。

3)St Laurent, Quebec – Liberals 59.1% (61.6%), Conservatives 19.5% (19.5%).

 

4）阿省Calgary Heritage选区——联邦保守党得票率71.5% (63.7%)；联邦自由党得票率21.7% (25.9%)。

4)Calgary Heritage, Alberta – Conservatives 71.5% (63.7%), Liberals 21.7% (25.9%)

 

5）阿省Calgary Midnapore选区——联邦保守党得票率77.2% (66.7%)；联邦自由党得票率17.0% (22.6%)。

5)Calgary Midnapore, Alberta – Conservatives 77.2% (66.7%), Liberals 17.0% (22.6%).

 

从补选结果可以看出，在各选区获胜的政党都赢得了50%以上的多数票。综合来看，联邦自由党在五场补选中的得票率平均下降了4.7个百分点，远远高于联邦新民主党2.2%的平均跌幅。与2015年联邦大选结果相比，联邦保守党的支持率平均上升了4.2个百分点。该趋势可谓2011年至2015年间的投票倾向之逆转，在此期间联邦自由党拿下了15场补选中的13场，而联邦保守党则在所有补选中铩羽而归。

 

As we can see from the results, the winning party in each riding held onto their over 50% majority. Across the five ridings, the Liberals' vote share dropped by an average of 4.7 points. That was a steeper loss than the NDP's average 2.2-point decline. The Conservatives gained an average of 4.2 points compared to their support in the 2015 federal election. This is a reversal of the trends exhibited between the 2011 and 2015 votes, when the Liberals made gains in 13 of 15 by-elections and the Conservatives suffered losses in all of them.

 

4月3日周一的选民投票率也低如预期，其中投票率最低的Markham–Thornhill选区为27.5%，投票率最高的Ottawa–Vanier选区为34.1%。因此，主要政党在各选区的得票数都有所减少，联邦自由党在个选区的投票票率亦出现下降。

Voter turnout was low on Monday April 3 as expected, ranging from 27.5 per cent in Markham–Thornhill to 34.1 per cent in Ottawa–Vanier. Accordingly, the big parties lost votes in every riding — and the Liberals lost vote share across the board.

 

联邦保守党在Markham–Thornhill选区的表现亦不俗，而保守党必需拿下这类大多伦多地区的选区才有可能在未来组建多数政府。在此次补选中，联邦保守党在Markham–Thornhill选区获得39%选票，得票率上升了6.7个百分点，是自1997年联邦自由党最后一次在该选区败走麦城以来的最佳表现。

The Conservatives also put up good numbers in Markham–Thornhill, the kind of GTA riding the Conservatives will need to win in the future to form a majority government. The party captured 39 per cent of the vote, up 6.7 points and was their best performance since 1997 — when the Liberals last lost the riding.

 

但是在Ottawa–Vanier和Saint-Laurent这两个说法语的选区，联邦保守党的表现却极差。保守党在Saint-Laurent选区的得票率仍为19.5%。而在Ottawa–Vanier选区，保守党的得票率则下降了3.7个百分点，是自1968年以来的最糟糕表现。

In the two francophone ridings Ottawa–Vanier and Saint-Laurent, the Conservatives put up worse results. The party held its 19.5% vote share in the Saint-Laurent seat. In Ottawa–Vanier, the Conservatives were down 3.7 points, their worst performance there since 1968.

 

这或许是因为联邦保守党党领竞选帮助该党在其他选区提升了人气，

但（包括领先候选人之一欧列利在内的）14名竞逐联邦保守党党领的候选人普遍缺乏法语技能却未能让该党在拥有大量法语人口的选区站稳脚跟？

Is it possible the Conservative leadership race has helped boost the party elsewhere, but the lack of French-language skills among the field of 14 candidates for the top job (including one of the front-runners, Kevin O'Leary) may not be doing the party favours in ridings with large francophone populations?

 

值得注意的是，尽管Calgary Heritage选区的席位此前是由前总理哈珀把持，Calgary Midapore选区的席位则是由前国防部长康尼把持，但他们名气相对较低的继任者却将保守党在这两个选区的得票率都提升到了70%以上。

It is noteworthy to know that Calgary Heritage used to be Ex-Prime Minister Stephen Harper's seat and Calgary Midapore was Ex-Minister of National Defence Jason Kenny's seat, yet their relatively unknown successors increased the party's share of the vote to more than 70% in those ridings. 

 

从另一方面来看，补选结果亦表明联邦新民主党在此前由两大主要政党所把持的任何一个选区都无力胜出。至于绿党和魁人政团等其他边缘政党，他们原本一心期盼“比例代表”选举制能够得以实施，但是随着特鲁多总理放弃在上次联邦大选中承诺的选举制度改革，新选举制亦胎死腹中。

On the other hand, the by-election results indicate that the NDP is in no shape to compete seriously in any of the contested ridings previously dominated by the two Major parties. As for the other fringe parties like the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois, their best hope is for the “Proportional Representation” system to come into play – a system that died with the dropping of electoral reform promised by Prime Minister in the last Federal Election. 

 

在此次联邦补选中联邦保守党在安省和阿尔伯塔省人气大涨，也应该给这两个省份的执政省自由党敲响警钟。鉴于安省省选定于明年举行，留给韦恩省长的时间已经不多了。

The popularity of Conservatives in Ontario and Alberta in this Federal by-election should give the ruling provincial parties in these provinces a warning. The Ontario provincial election is scheduled for next year and time is running out for Premier Wynne.