安省新政策将对房市有哪些影响 （一）

 

 

 

2017年4月，安省政府突然改变原有立场，推出房市新政策。就在几个月前，他们还声称不会对多伦多的高房价进行干预，也不会效仿温哥华实施任何形式的“外国买家税”。事实上，包括本人在内的许多人对安省政府态度突现180度大转弯都不奇怪。

 

In April 2017, the Ontario Provincial Government performed yet another flip-flop move. Just a few months back, they claimed that they will not do anything about the high cost of housing in Toronto and will not implement any sort of “Foreign Buyers tax” like Vancouver.  Of course, they did a 180 degree turn as predicted by this writer and others.

 

随着多伦多房价持续飞涨，在过去两年里，土地转让税已给安省政府带来高达十亿元的巨额税收。那么，省府为什么还要设法为房市“降温”，希望房市再现能让首次购房者“买得起”的住房呢？原因很简单，还有一年就要进行下届省选，而安省自由党的民调支持率却落后于其他政党。因此，随着住房问题成为继高昂电费后的第二大热点话题，省府又开始用各种好处贿赂选民。

 

The Land Transfer Tax brought in a huge billion dollars windfall over the last two years as the housing prices in Toronto went through the roof. Why are they trying to “cool off” the market and want to bring “affordable” housing back to new buyers? Simply put, the election is one year away and they were lagging behind at the public polls. Therefore, a whole new package of goodies was handed out to the public as the housing issue is the second hottest topic after the expensive Hydro bills.

 

由于这些房市新政策还需要一段时日才能充分落实，因此在省府提出非常不得人心的、以未来的高昂代价换取短期电费降价计划后，推出这些房市新政显然能够有效转移民众对电价的注意力。

 

The new housing rules will take a while to get fulling implemented and so it is an excellent item to bring forward as a distraction to the Hydro Bill reductions which was a very unpopular “fix” with expensive payments in future.

 

我最近在向一个华人文化组织介绍这些房市新政策时，发现听众并不了解全部事实。他们认为“这些政策是否可行要看细节”，而目前新政策的许多细节尚待确定。但基于已公布的新政纲要，实际上我们已经可以预测可能出现的结果。

 

I recently gave a presentation on the housing rules to a Chinese cultural organization and realized that the audience did not get all the facts. They say “the devil is in the details” and a lot of these details are still not finalized but we can see what they may turn out based on the outline released.

 

令人惊讶的是，这些新政策已经对房市产生立竿见影的效果。安省新上市房屋量出现猛增即来自季节性因素和新政策所引发的恐慌心理，从而使得买家也开始采取“观望”态度。这些变化导致安省房市出现“降温”。许多买家到了九月就要忙于应付孩子们的上学，因此如果房屋销售到七月中旬仍不见起色，房市就有可能出现大幅“调整”乃至暴跌，从而让许多人面临灾难性后果。

 

Amazingly, the new rules had an immediate impact on the housing market. With the addition listings flooding the market which is partly seasonal and partly due to a fear of the new rules, the buyers also adopted a “wait and see” position. These resulted in a “cool down” of the market. If the sales do not pick up by middle of July to let the buyers deal with the start of schools in September, the market can go into a major “adjustment” or even a tail-spin with disastrous results for many.

 

下面我会详细解释这些房市新规定：

I will explain these new housing rules below:

 

 

非居民投机倒房税

Non-resident speculation tax (NRST)

 

该项覆盖以多伦多为中心的安省大金马蹄地区的新税制从今年4月21日开始生效，从尼亚加拉瀑布到基奇纳-滑铁卢到彼得伯勒等众多大城市都包含在其中。

 

Effective April 21, this new tax covers the Greater Golden Horseshoe areas of Ontario with Toronto as its centre. This includes many large cities from Niagara Falls to Kitchener/Waterloo to Peterborough.

 

该项外国买家税适用于非加国公民又非加国永久居民的外国买家，以及外国公司。但多户出租公寓、农业用地或商业/工业用地的转让交易并不适用于NRST。

 

Foreign Buyers tax applies to those who aren’t citizens or permanent residents, as well as foreign companies. The NRST will also not apply to transfers of multi-residential rental apartment buildings, agricultural land or commercial/industrial land.

 

如果外国买家在出售房屋后的四年内成为加国永久居民，将可获得NRST退税。此外，在加国大学全日制就读至少两年的国际留学生，或在安省合法工作至少一年的人士也可以申请NRST退税。要想获得NRST退税资格，外国买家所转手的房屋还必须是其本人的主要居所。

 

It will be reimbursed to buyers who become permanent residents within four years of a sale, and won’t apply to international students enrolled full-time for at least two years or someone who has been legally working in Ontario for at least one year. To qualify for a rebate, the property must also be considered someone’s principal residence.

 

多伦多不是温哥华，“外国买家”对多伦多房市的影响也远不及温哥华。由于NRST没有设定最后期限便立即予以实施，安省并没有出现外国买家为了避税而竞相“匆忙”完成交易的情况。因此，我们也无法判断和衡量该项新税制对安省的实际影响，并将其效果与温哥华的情况进行比较。虽然该项新税制一开始可能会对外国买家产生威慑，但在经过一段时间后，多伦多也会像温哥华一样看到外国买家再度回流。

 

Toronto is not Vancouver and the “Foreign buyers” conditions are no where near those experienced by the latter. Since no deadline was set and the tax enforcement is immediate, we cannot see the “rush” to close the deals before a deadline to avoid the taxes. This will not allow us to gauge and measure the actual impact  in Ontario and compare that to the earlier scenario in Vancouver.

Initially, this can be a deterrent to the foreign buyers but they will rebound similar to the Vancouver situation after a period of time.

 

扩大租金管制

Expanding rent control

 

1991年后建成的房屋也将纳入（非商业和非工业建筑）租金管制范围，意味着安省所有出租房屋都将受到租金管制。

 

Rent control (non-commercial and non-industrial) will now be applied to buildings built after 1991 as well, meaning all buildings.

 

按照房租管制政策，出租屋每年的租金上涨幅度将依据通胀率而定，上限为2.5%。但是，对出租屋进行装修或升级的房东仍可申请进一步提高房租。此外，在租客搬走后，房东可以提高租金。

 

Rent hikes across the board will be held to around inflation, and capped at 2.5 per cent a year, although landlords can still apply for special increases if they do renovations or upgrades. Rents can be raised when a tenant moves out.

 

由于预期盈利将会下降，有人担心房东会遭受重创，开发商也会因此减少新租赁房屋的建设。

 

There are concerns that landlords will suffer and discouraged from building more rental units as expected profits will be lowered.

 

下一次，我们将继续介绍安省的房市新政策。我们会探讨其中的一些政策将于何时并以何种方式实施，它们会对房市产生什么样的影响，以及我们入住“负担得起”的出租屋或购买住房的可能性。

 

Next time, we will continue with the new housing rules in Ontario. We will explore how and when some of these will be implemented and what impact they will have on the housing market and our chances of getting to move into “affordable” rental or purchased homes.