大陆华裔候选人仅靠大陆华裔手中的选票来取胜几乎不可能

 

2018市政选举已经结束。现在是仔细研究选举结果的时候，看看造成这些结果的原由。我也需要问问自己，为何我在选举之前做出的一些预测是错的。

2018 municipal elections are now over, it is time for me to look at the results closely and try to make some sense of what has just happened. I need to find out why some of the predictions that I have made prior to the elections did not turn out.

 

在投票前，我们列出了一些可能影响选举结果的因素。但是，我们一直低估这些因素对投票结果的影响程度。族裔选票显然是一股不可忽视的力量。它可以让政治上从未有过建树的人获得意想不到的结果。比如，万锦市市长选举中的一名中国大陆华裔候选人得了一万多张票。

Many of the factors affecting election results were properly identified before the elections. However, we consistently underestimate the magnitude of these factors and therefore their total impact on the election results. The ethnic vote is definitely a force to be reckoned with. It can work magic for the politically unknown. Take the case of one of the Chinese Mainland candidate in the Markham Mayoral election. Over ten thousand votes went to that candidate.

 

许多人认为这些票是对万锦市长的“抗议票”，还有人认为这是安大略省保守党支持者的票，因为该候选人竞选口号是要“将一个自由党（市长）”拉下马。这两个因素实际上都发挥了作用。至于市长最后得票比上届还高，我认为这与市长在投票前召开特别市议会，做出万锦市禁止在所有公共场吸大麻有关。 

Many considered those as “protest votes” against the Mayor. Some also attribute those as partisan votes for the Ontario PC party since the candidate campaigned on “Getting rid of one more Liberal (the Mayor)”. Both factors are actually at play here. As for the increase in the popularly vote percentages for the Mayor, I would connect that to the last minute resolution spearheaded by the Mayor in a special session of Council to ban the smoking of marijuana in all public places.

族裔选票是一把双刃剑。在华裔选民占多数的第五选区的竞选中，许多中国候选人的票被分散。结果凯斯在万锦市全部选区中以最低票（1266票）当选。而Compass Chung以920票排第二名，得票数低于他2014年所得的票数。在5名华裔候选人中，有3157张华裔选票可能被分散。第三选区也面临同样的情况，选票在两名华裔候选人之间分配，结果让另一位候选人得胜。

Ethnic votes can be a double-edged sword as well. In the Ward#5 contest where the constituents are a Chinese majority, the many Chinese candidates ended up splitting the votes. Andrew Keyes won with the smallest number of votes in all of Markham (1266). Compass Chung was second at 920 votes, a drop from his last election in 2014. 3157 potentially Chinese votes were divided up between 5 Chinese candidates. In Ward#3, the Chinese votes were also divvied up between two Chinese Candidates allowing another candidate to win the race.

 

这一情况还发生第7选区。泰米尔裔的候选人们争夺Logan Kanapathi在当上了安省议员后空出的市议员席位。由于泰米尔裔选民不团结，Logan Kanapathi的女儿以不到700的票输给了市议会“任命的”现任议员。在同一个选区，自2015年以来一直担任联邦议员Bob Saroya（Unionville）助理的候选人王翔以2079票排在第三。他的情况与其他华裔市长候选人的情况非常相似，尽管他曾在OMNI华人节目的新闻部工作，给他更多的政治经验和“明星”效应。

This fact is also true in Ward#7 where Tamil candidates fought for ethnic votes vacated by the election of Logan Kanapathi to the Ontario Parliament. Without a united front, the daughter of the departed Tamil councillor lost to the “appointed” incumbent by less than 700 votes. In the same ward, candidate Shawn Wang who is federal MP Bob Saroya's (Unionville) assistant since 2015, managed third place at 2079 votes. His situation is very similar to that of the other Chinese Mayoral candidate albeit with a lot more of political experience and “star” quality from his days working at the OMNI Chinese TV mandarin news department.

 

与过去的市选相比，影响今年选举结果的另一因素是候选人们很少辩论和演讲。由于没有这些平台，新人们很难向公众展示自己潜力，而这对寻求连任的候选人极为有利。万锦市政府主办的一些“与候选人见面”的活动让新人失望。如果选民对新人的名字都叫不出来，新的候选人将不是那些寻求连任的对手。

Another new factor that came into play this year is a lack of debates and speeches for contesting candidates, relative to the previous elections. Without these activities to showcase the potentials and platforms of the candidates to the public, all the advantages go to the incumbents. A serious of “meet and greet” meetings sponsored by the City neutered the new candidates. Without name recognition, their vote totals cannot match those of the incumbents.

 

在约克区议员竞选中，寻求连任的区议员是新人所得票的一倍。唯一的例外是汉密尔顿得票最高。虽然这是他第一次参加区议员竞选，但汉密尔顿是原第三选区的市议员，他在上届市选中获得了6200票，是当年市选中得票最高的市议员。

In the Regional Councillor contest, the incumbents vote counts doubled those of the new candidates. The only except being that of Don Hamilton who captured top votes. Even though it is his first time running for Regional Councillor, don was the Ward#3 incumbent who took 6200 votes in the last election and had the highest vote totals of all elected ward councillors.

有些候选人也受益于自己所属的党派。有人怀疑有候选人利用省级党员名单来提高他们获胜的机会。我和妻子都接到了这类候选人义工拉票的电话，我想他们是从党员名单上找到我们的。我们的情况并不是孤立的，因为我们的许多朋友也告诉我类似的事。第七选区获胜的候选人（非华裔）利用党内名人对其的支持来吸引华裔选票。

Candidates also benefit from political party affiliations. Many were suspected of using provincial party members lists to improve their chances. Both my wife and I received telephone calls from campaign volunteers in a way that I can trace to political party memberships. We were not the only ones as many of our friends also reported similar incidents. The winning candidate (a non-Chinese) in Ward#7 used heavy endorsements from party celebrities of Chinese origins to entice Chinese votes.

 

在族裔选票方面，许多来自中国大陆的华裔候选人使用微信与选民沟通，拉他们的票。我在多篇文章中都提到，候选人必须在选区内为所有选民工作，而不仅仅是他们自己的华人小圈子。仅凭微信拉票并不是取胜的最佳方式。


When it comes to ethnic votes, many Chinese candidates from Mainland used WeChat to connect to Mainland voters and focused on getting their votes. I mentioned in many of my articles that candidates have to work for all constituents within the election boundaries and not just a group of their choice. This solicitation with WeChat alone is not the proper way to get elected.

 

在万锦市的任何选区里，仅靠大陆移民手中的票不足以让自己当选。许多大陆移民都不是加拿大公民，因为他们想保留自己的中国护照。这使得他们因户籍问题而没有资格投票。

There are not enough Mainland votes in any particular ward or riding to allow for the capturing of the contest by sheer numbers of Mainland voters.  Many of the Mainlanders are non-citizens simply because they want to hang onto their Chinese passports. Either that or they have not met the residency requirements to qualify for citizenship as yet.