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中美贸易战暴露了中国自身的弱点和麻烦
China's own weaknesses and troubles are lurking behind its trade war with Trump




美国报纸The Hill日前发表了一篇克里斯托弗·希尔(CHRISTOPHER R. HILL)的专栏文章。

希尔说,美国与墨西哥的关税和非法移民的僵局可能已经得到解决,但中国和美国的贸易战还在继续,让全球贸易市场忧心忡忡。不久前,20国集团(G20)财政部长聚集东京,表达了对国际经济增长放缓的担心,而旷日持久的贸易争端则是经济放缓的罪魁祸首之一。毫无疑问,正在进行的美中贸易争端给全球经济增长蒙上一层阴影,谁也拿不出什么高招来解决未来几年全球经济放缓和双边贸易量下降的问题。

几十年来,全球经济体系一直寻求能使经济持续增长的第二个经济引擎,人们曾预计,一旦欧盟有了新成员的进入,欧洲货币统一和欧洲各国会更加融合,欧盟就会成为第二个世界经济引擎。



结果是,欧盟没有成为第二台引擎。可是,人们突然发现,中国成了第二台引擎。中国两位数的增长为国际贸易带来了生机。这不仅引发了全球供应链的惊人变化,同时给世界各地的经济体增加了活力,尤其是中国周边的亚洲邻国。

中国显然也加强了与各国的外交关系。中国领导人似乎与中国经济本身一样,有使不完的劲。他们在世界各地宣传自己的高增长和给邻国带来的福音,美国和欧洲也懒得谈价值观和人权的问题。一个中国模式形成了,且这一模式可能是世界的未来 - 而不仅仅只适用于中国。

今天,这一切都在改变。中国的轻工业正在重复日本和韩国在20世纪80年代和90年代的历史,直线走下坡路,同时,中国的经济增长率不再高居榜首,中国的社会状况也不再是曾经标榜过的那个和谐社会。在政改方面,中国取消了国家主席的任期制,人们开始怀疑中国是否还会搞政治改革和中国政治演变的方向。

随着经济增长放缓,中国试图扩大中等收入人群来解决民间的社会问题。为此,它进一步强化一个中央集权的政治体系。问题是,此体系带来的一个问题是它扼杀了中国人的革新力和创造力。结果,中国只能靠老办法来提高自己的技术:那就是偷。为此,中国在获取知识产权方面变得更加积极,迫使那些要在中国捞油水的外国企业向中国转让技术以换取投资机会。



增长放缓,加上金融失衡加剧,导致中国房地产泡沫,国内和海外资金的调度不当。中国的那些海外项目,那些所谓的有深远影响的项目,比如令人瞩目的“一带一路”,已经让那些参与国担心这些项目的持续性,以及这些项目给本国造成的沉重债务。这些项目似乎是为了解决中国自己资金失调的工具,而且没有给中国赢得朋友或声望,并有可能成为世界上最糟糕的投资失败项目。

这些项目为何要上马至今仍然是个谜。许多人都在猜测,是否因为中国产能过剩而要搞这些项目?还是让这些项目与军事扩张结合,最终让中国主宰世界?

在国内和国外不守规矩的情况表明,中国的弱点越来越多,麻烦也越来越大。美国现在视中国是一个巨大的,也许已经存在的威胁。美国认为中国有能力和打算征服美国。

一些观察家认为,中国的规模和实力甚至不亚于新版的“黄祸”。事实上,国务卿蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)的政策规划主管斯金纳(Kiron Skinner)最近谈到了一个非白人的大国对美国的挑战。无论这种说法是否尊重中国,或者这根本就是瞎扯,它都表明美国政府根本就没有准备,甚至没有配备人手来应对这个问题。



事实上,美国在处理中国问题时要非常小心谨慎,而且需要了解中国社会和政治动态,对中国的回应要坚定和前后一致,并期待其他伙伴和盟国联合来应对中国的扩张。而这恰恰是美国现政府的一个特殊软肋。当然,美国现政府也在寻找与北京有共同利益的领域,并且应该寻找一个与北京合作的模式。

美国似乎已经制定了一项大力挑战中国自信的战略,川普在其所有外交政策中发现,他对付中国的政策在美国国内几乎没有反对声音。美国那些批评中国的人,不管他/她是左派还是右派都对中国毫不留情,而那些主张进一步要与中国磨合的人已经无话可说了。在与美国的持续贸易争端中,中国人不能只是把自己扮演成一个受害者,它应该问问自己,在与美国打交道时,自己有何高见。

中国当局所要关注的不只是川普总统和他强压在中国头上的关税,他们应该立即拿镜子照照自己了。

注:克里斯托弗·希尔于2004年至2005年担任美国驻韩国大使,并担任东亚助理部长(2005-2009)。他在朝鲜问题上与中国有广泛合作。他现在是外交学教授,丹佛大学全球关系的校长首席顾问,卡内基国际和平基金会的非常驻高级研究员。

我们鼓励所有读者在我们的文章和博客上分享意见。We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion, so we ask you to avoid personal attacks, and please keep your comments relevant and respectful. Visit the FAQ page for more information.

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