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社论转载:加拿大联邦的债务,赤字以及此次选举无关的事情(上)

Worth repeat: The debt, the deficit – and other things this election isn’t about
来源: 大中报 李子



选举总是与钱有关。大家都要问:谁该付更多的税?谁该少付税?政府应该抽多少税,这些税应该如何花和花在哪里!

Elections are about money – who will pay more in taxes and who should pay less; how much revenue government will raise; and how, where and on what it will be spent.

在过去的几天里,加拿大几个大党都在许诺哪些地方要多花钱,哪些地方要减税,以及哪些福利要增加。这些许诺有些不错,有些却很糟糕。

Over the past few days, the parties have been rolling out promises of new spending, new tax cuts and new benefits. Some of these ideas are good and some are less so.



不管许诺的好坏,在评论各党的各种许诺前,我们先来看看我们这次大选所面临的经济环境。

But before we get to critiquing what the parties are pitching, let’s look at the landscape that is this election’s fiscal playing field.

国债:加拿大是七国集团中负债最低的国家。我们的联邦债务不重而且没有增加。衡量国债是否沉重的方法之一是看加拿大的国债占国内总产值(GDP)的比例。从2015年来,这一比例较低,并且在过去四年中有所下降。

The national debt: Canada has the lowest debt burden in the Group of Seven. The weight of federal debt is not heavy and increasing; it’s light and shrinking. The debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of the debt relative to the size of the economy as measured by gross domestic product, was low in 2015, and it’s gone down over the past four years.



在2018到2019年的财政年度里,加拿大支付国债本金和利息的支出占GDP的1%,这是自从1960年以来的最低数字。渥太华目前在偿还国债方面的支出低于当年哈珀保守党执政的时代。

At just 1 per cent of GDP, federal debt-service costs in 2018-19 were lower than at any time since at least the mid-1960s. Ottawa is currently spending less on debt servicing than during the Stephen Harper era.

说白了,加拿大没有债务危机,甚至没有债务问题。反对党可以对联邦自由党的其他政策指手画脚,但是任何人(保守党,这里说的就是你)称加拿大已经捅了个债务大窟窿实在是无稽之谈。
 
In short, Ottawa does not have a debt crisis, or even a debt problem. The other parties are free to disagree with the Liberal government’s choices on other issues, but (we’re looking at you, Conservatives) don’t even try arguing that it’s dug Canada into a fiscal hole.



联邦的财政赤字:9月17日周二,当渥太华就2018-19年财政状况结账时,它的账本上有140亿元的赤字。你也许会问,联邦支出与收入之间的差距究竟有多大?回答是:很小!去年联邦债务占GDP的比例从31.3%降至30.9%。这是哈珀保守党政府在2008年经济衰退前的比例,也是当年老特鲁多就任总理时的比例。

The deficit: On Tuesday, when Ottawa closed its books on 2018-19, it recorded a $14-billion deficit. How big is that gap between spending and revenues? Small enough that the debt-to-GDP ratio last year fell from 31.3 per cent to 30.9 per cent. That’s a level last hit in the Harper government’s pre-Great Recession years, and before that last seen when Pierre Trudeau was prime minister.

加拿大经济规模目前是每年2.3万亿,随着联邦债务与GDP的比例进一步降低,不到200亿的年财政赤字是很小的数字。我们应该将一个不高的年财政赤字看作是个收支平衡的预算。

Relative to a $2.3-trillion economy, deficits of roughly $20-billion or less are small enough that the federal debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to steadily fall. A small deficit is the new balanced budget.



因此,我们没有必要天天谈降低联邦财政赤字,这就是为什么即使保守党上台,他们也不急于搞收支平衡的预算。话虽这么说,在经济衰退的情况下,我们没有任何理由提高年度财政赤字并使债务占GDP的比例提高。

As such, there’s no urgency about lowering the deficit, which is why even the Conservatives are in no hurry to get to balance. But neither is there any reason, absent a recession, to pump up the deficit and send the debt-to-GDP ratio rising.

税收和支出:在哈珀保守党执政的最后一年,渥太华的税收和所有其他来源的收入占GDP的14%。自由党上台四年后,这个比例增加了一个百分点,为GDP的15%。

Taxing and spending: In the last full year of Mr. Harper’s government, Ottawa’s revenue from taxes and all other sources was worth 14 per cent of GDP. Four years of Liberal government have raised that number. The federal share of the economy is now one percentage point higher, at 15 per cent of GDP.

然而,今天渥太华的税收占GDP的比例比历史上的任何时候都要低。在马尔罗尼领导的保守党执政的最后一年,渥太华的税收份额占GDP的17.4%。这一比例在克里靖的自由党执政早期,达到17.8%。但是,由于在接下来的几年的不断减税,到2005年6月,在自由党的马丁下台时,渥太华税收的比例已经减少到占GDP的15.8%。

However, Ottawa’s tax take today is smaller than at any other time in recent history. In Brian Mulroney’s last full year in office, Ottawa’s share was 17.4 per cent of GDP. In Jean Chrétien’s early years, revenues peaked at 17.8 per cent. But thanks to tax cuts in the years that followed, by the end of Paul Martin’s mandate in 2005-06, Ottawa’s revenues had been pared down to just 15.8 per cent of GDP.



哈珀的保守党上台后进一步减税,尤其是商品和服务税(GST)。20011年,联邦的税收只占GDP的13.9%。

Further cuts, notably to the goods and services tax, followed under Mr. Harper. Federal revenues hit a low of 13.9 per cent of GDP in 2011.

政府究竟需要收多少税才合理是个很难回答的问题。这取决于选民希望政府都干些什么,选民是否愿意为此付账单。

How much money a government needs is a judgment call. It depends on what voters want their government to do, and what they’re willing to pay for.

根据国际经合组织的数据,2017年,加拿大三级政府所花的钱占加拿大经济的32.2%。

According to the OECD, the share of the Canadian economy going to all levels of government was 32.2 per cent in 2017.

这个比例是高还是低?加拿大的数字高于美国。美国各级政府花的钱只占其GDP的27.1%。与大多数其他发达国家相比,加拿大的比例很低。它也远低于1997年35.9%。当时,加拿大各级政府的税收比国家经合组织成员国的平均水平高出2.5个百分点,而今天,加拿大比平均数字比他们低两个百分点还多。

Is that high or low? It’s higher than the United States’ figure of 27.1 per cent of GDP. But compared with most other developed countries, it’s low. It’s also well below the Canadian peak of 35.9 per cent, reached in 1997. Back then, Canada’s all-government revenues were 2.5 percentage points above the OECD average; today, Canada is two points below.



政府收多少税才合适得由选民来决定,税收的多少将影响政府的支出高低。在同等条件下,政府收多少钱才能办多少事。

The appropriate level of government revenues is a decision for voters, one that affects the level of government spending. All else equal, the more or less revenue a government has, the more or less it can do.

在哈珀保守党执政的最后一年,渥太华的支出占GDP的14.1%。特鲁多的自由党上台后增加了一点,但增幅很小,且增加的很有意义。2018至19年财政年度,自由党政府花了3462亿元,占国内生产总值的15.6%。

In the last full year of Mr. Harper’s government, Ottawa’s spending was worth 14.1 per cent of GDP. The Trudeau government has increased that, marginally but meaningfully. In 2018-19, Ottawa spent $346.2-billion, or 15.6 per cent of GDP.

在过去的一周里,联邦保守党和自由党均向选民许诺,老百姓的银行账户里将会有更多进账,同时他们将少交税。他们许诺的对象还是那批选民,只是这周的重点是争取那些有家庭的选民和女选民。保守党和自由党争夺你手里选票的方式不同,但均反映了两党各自的执政理念,这种理念已在两党过去多年的理财历史中显现。(待续)

Over the past week, the Conservatives and Liberals have courted Canadians with promises of more money going into their pockets, and less money coming out. They’re targeting many of the same voters, with this week’s focus on families and women. But their competing plans differ – in ways that reflect differing philosophies, as seen in Canada’s recent fiscal history. (To be continued.)

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