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为什么加拿大的新车销售停滞不前?为什么更多人购买二手车?



环球邮报专栏作家Michael Babad最近发表一篇文章说,尽管每家车道上都停着车,且车使用寿命越来越长,还有其他许多替代开车的旅行方式,这就给人们带来一个问题:加拿大新车市场将如何发展?
 
尽管经济学家认为汽车市场不会会崩溃,但他们确实希望汽车销售能适度增长。因为汽车销售对消费者支出以及整个经济都会有影响。
 
多伦多-道明银行的高级经济学家Brian DePratto说:“对于许多加拿大人来说,汽车是他们一生中购买的第二个大重商品,仅次于房屋。”他在最近的一份报告中说:“汽车的销售和生产近来都处于停滞状态,特别是在加拿大。”
 
在过去的18个月中,加拿大的汽车销量普遍下滑。最新数据显示,今年9月份的汽车销量同比下降了近4%。



枫叶银行财政和省级经济主管Rebekah Young指出:“传统上,汽车销售旺季是8月份,但劳动节长周末的销售疲软,显示整个9月份销售不振。初步的评估还表明,9月汽车批发销售相对平稳,但并不能抵消零售业绩的下降。汽车销售的另一个主要阻力是9月中旬车贷成本的飙升。十年期政府债券比8月份的低点增加了40个基点。”
 
Young女士还指出,那些“缺现金”的买家可能还在观望,期望加拿大央行本月晚些时候降息。问题是,尽管金融市场预计会降息,但是否真降还是个未知数。
 
Young女士说:“如果不降息,工作和工资的持续增长将提高消费者的消费信心。从年初到目前为止,加拿大汽车销售量为194万辆。”
 
道明银行的Brian DePratto先生认为,有三个“不停的趋势”将影响汽车销量。
 
首先,我们的汽车使用寿命延长,因此我们不需要经常购买新车。



第二,汽车贷款的年限明显增长,84个月的车贷变得越来越普遍。这扩大了消费者的购买力,但以需要支付更高隐形费用作为代价。 
 
DePratto先生说:“当然,人们不能一直开同一辆汽车,但随着使用寿命的延长,贷款期限的延长也延长了换新车周期,从而降低了对汽车的短期需求。”
 
第三,人口老化。人们越来越倾向于“集中”居住在多伦多,蒙特利尔和温哥华等大城市。对于城市居民来说,与非城市居民相比,公共交通,步行/骑自行车,出租车/共享汽车等都可以替代拥有汽车。而对于年纪大的人,这通常意味着许多老年人的汽车“磨损”较少。
 
但这并不意味着新车销售额会出现“大问题”。 

 
DePratto先生说:“迄今为止的销售数据几乎不能和二十世纪90年代经济衰退之前出现的'过度消费'类型的情况相提并论,现在有健康的劳动力市场和有利的借贷成本都保证汽车销售不会崩溃。更多的迹象表明,近年来的趋势,总体消费只是适度增长,销售增长率与人口增长率一致或略低于人口增长率是最好的假设。不要指望汽车销售会很快加速增长。” 
 
Mendes 先生说:“汽车在路上的寿命越来越长,这也意味着更多的加拿大人可以负担得起车,即使车不是全新的。由于购买力的影响,过去的加息已经使新的汽车销售受到影响,但二手车的销售却有复苏的迹象。如果就业增长放慢并且经济在未来几个季度减速,那么更多的加拿大人可能会在下一次购买时转向二手车。”

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