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大选落定 前途未卜




一如所料,2019 加国联邦选举的结果是产生了一个少数政府。这是笔者关于此次选举的第五篇短文。从一开始在尚无民调数据的支持下,笔者即判断此次选战将显露出少数政府的趋向,这多少反映了普通民众对时局的感受。事实上自由党继续执政,本国人民的生活不会坏到哪里去;而若保守党上台,加国百姓的日子也不会好到怎样。至于新民主党,“能够保住目前在国会的席位或不要跌落得太多,已是上上大吉了”(见选前本月12日大中报评论)。

人民党首脑伯聂尔在自己的选区落败(仅管得票一万多),人民党候选人全数尽墨,这与该党反移民反多元化的倾向令人反感有关。而同样是族裔色彩浓重的NDP党领 辛格先生却保住了席位,这拜赐于本国人民对政治正确下的多元化之宽容,仅管辛格对有选民劝其摘去头巾不以为然。NDP在本次选战中大跌20席,得票率从4年前的19.7%降至今日的15%。NDP对于自己的党领过分张扬族裔色彩之做法应该有所反思;而在提倡环保和对抗气候变暖上无甚新意,一味地开支票鼓吹提升医保和学生贷款的福利,似有不当家不知柴米贵之嫌,且气势上又不如绿党“投100亿免大专学费”那样干脆利落。



在大资本掌控的本国东西集团博弈之固有态势下,面对欧裔为绝对多数的本国现实,在保守、自由两党轮流执政的惯性下,NDP玩不转阶级斗争这张牌,本国的统治阶层不会让少数族裔多元化玩到弄假成真的地步。多元化于本质上,乃是因为本国为维持移民劳力而作平缓冲突的手段,NDP大概应从蹦跳的天真回归林顿的睿智和进取了,靠辩论时的急智和俏皮又岂能成大事。反观绿党的新思维,直捣本国政治制度尤其是陈旧的选举制度之弊端,鲜明提出变革欠公平合理的选举简单多数出线制、倡现代化的比例代表制。周一西部一土著选区,有人得票16超对手1票,也出线;而保守党副党领Lisa Raitt ,在安省milton选区得票一万多,照样被简单多数制刷了下去。保守党搞不定魁省及东部的选情,自由党同样在西部阿尔博塔和萨斯凯通两大省被无情剔除,但保守党在跟自由党于全国最大之票仓中部安省的决战中又大面积失利;虽然保守党整体得票率及绝对得票数超过了自由党,但陈旧僵化的简单多数出线制,却令保守党再次与政权失之交臂(此刻还不见绿党政改主张的好?)。单纯埋怨福特和康尼的紧缩砍减对保守党无补于事。以选举制度为核心的政治制度,不做与时俱进的变革,加拿大的未来不会明朗,再好的新意也无施展的空间。不受资本集团青睐的弱小的绿党,从1席上升到3席,其中包括在东部如火种般的新获席位。梅老太绿党的新思维和不知疲惫的顽强斗志,着实令国人敬佩。



本次选举最大的获胜者应该数魁人政团了,从选前的10席猛增至32席。一个地方区域性政党一跃成为国会第三大党,实在耐人寻味。如果保守党与魁人政团和绿党等联手,将可把自由党踩在脚下合法组成联合政府(希尔反对联合政府的论调,于选前弹得也过早了些)。魁人政团的重新崛起,无关乎选前保守党希尔对“加拿大立国者”之本国内的魁北克“nation”所释放的善意,而是魁人在东部集团的阵势下,作魁北克意志的顽强表达。谁都说不好,在这一届的少数政府治理下,会否发生再一次的魁独公投。此乃本国前景不甚明朗的又一层。由于保守党在西部的强力经营,把个阿省和萨省搞成一整块蓝色铁板,自由党的红旗一面都插不进,选后当地省长要与自由党联邦重新谈条件要实惠。继英国Briexit后,加拿大也为英语贡献了一个新词叫Wexit 西部切隔,加国的前途蒙上这厚重的蓝灰幕帘,怎令人省心。

一旦自由党以少数政府继掌政权,其脆弱性勿容置疑。外交政策、环境气候、住房教育、医保福利、能源基建以及移民宗教和文化等等,将全方位地受到左右制肘。施政上一不小心忽略了保守党的眼色,政府随时都会被推翻倒台,如欲再于短期内进行大选又恐民怨难惹。小特鲁多与其再以妇女、难民及少数族裔点缀其新内阁职位,不如分拆几个位置给NDP及绿党,如此坐在国会山里的日子倒会相对安稳些。



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