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10月地产数据显示,加拿大房市向卖方市场倾斜




根据环球邮报的报道,加拿大房地产协会(CREA)近期公布数据,10月份加拿大房屋成交量和9月份相比基本持平,但是同比却有很大增幅,达12.9%。另一方面,房屋的挂牌上市量则按月下降了1.8%。

成交量大涨,但是上市量下降,这意味着市场行情的天平转向卖方市场。事实上,今年10月份全国房屋的销量和挂牌量比率(SNLR)已达到了63.7%,达到了自2018年1月份以来的最高点。许多地产业内人士都认为,全国SNLR超过64%就意味着进入卖方市场。

2018年年初,联邦政府推行了一项针对房屋贷款的新政策,即房屋贷款申请人必须通过一项风险压力测试,并导致加国房市一泻千里。如今,SNLR的回升并接近临界点再次证明了该政策对地产市场的负面影响已被抵消。

多伦多的SNLR为61%,哈密尔顿为73.2%,渥太华为安省最高,达83.9%,温哥华为62.9%。

目前全国房屋的存货量为4.4(即按照现有的销量计算,消化掉市面上所有的房屋只要4.4个月),大大低于历史平均水平(6.3),这也是让人兴奋的一个亮点。



BMO首席经济学家波特说,这个数据再度证明,随着时间的推移,这种势态终将在房价的涨幅上体现出来。

今年10月份,全国房价增长了5.8%,达到自2017年年初以来的最高点。“MLS房价指数”(MLS home price index)也同比增长了1.8个百分点,超过业内预期,这个指标更能反映房屋价格的变化。

目前,全国有9个城市的房市已经进入卖方市场,其中房地产行情最紧俏的城市是魁省的蒙特利尔,以及新布伦瑞克省的蒙克顿,两地的SNLR已超过80%,卖家占据了完全的优势。包括多伦多、温哥华在内的全国多数大城市,地产行情均处于一个“平衡”状态。全加拿大唯一一个房市是买家占优势的城市是萨省省会里贾那。

加拿大大多数经济业内人士都看好房地产市场。皇家银行经济学家罗伯特·霍格说,低利率、强劲的劳动力市场,将推动地产市场在2020年继续复苏。联邦自由党政府也承诺支持首次购房者,也必定会给房市好势头锦上添花。



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