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2020年加拿大房贷市场走向如何?不妨看看专家如何说
Predictions for Canada’s mortgage market in 2020



 
加拿大的房贷市场在2019年已开始好转。从利率的暴跌,到年底房贷需求激增,以及网上房贷二级市场影响力越来越大,今年是具有里程碑意义的一年。

展望未来,2020年肯定会有一些坎坷。本文是环球邮报专栏作家Robert McLister对明年的预测。

今天你也许关心的话题:

2020年,安省还能成为加拿大就业市场的领头羊吗?
共管公寓的储备金影响你的单位能否卖出个好价钱,能否能很快脱手
谁来接位熙尔

想要阅读与本文有关的话题?请点击本文末的链接!



房贷市场竞争更激烈
自互联网诞生以来,经过了几十年,银行等金融机构(贷方)终于意识到,要赢得网上(在线)借贷,他们必须具备强劲的竞争力。 2020年,在线抵押贷款竞争将更加激烈。根据RateSpy.com的追踪,大家选择较多的是5年期固定利率,Motusbank,汇丰银行(HSBC)和在线经纪机构提供的利率与加拿大各大商业银行的五年掉期利率(swap rate)(大约是贷方基本资金成本的近似值)之间的价差降至历史最低水平。随着网路的日益普及,成本低、直接面向消费者的房屋按揭机构(包括一个或多个您熟知的知名品牌)进入市场,预计2020年将更具竞争力。

银行透明度增加
丰业银行首次在网上刊登其最佳房屋按揭利率,这一做法偏离了大银行的惯例。丰业银行的eHome在线房屋按揭应用程序所提供的利率是目前大多数银行根本无法做到的。客户们注意到了这一点,今年有100,000多名借款人尝试使用了eHome。 “网上房贷利率”的竞争将在2020年更加火爆。六大巨头中的其余几家银行都有可能推出增强型房屋按揭网站。并非所有人都会在网上运用极具竞争力的利率,但只要有一两个人使用,这足以在2020年进一步推动贷款利率的竞争。



“立即批准”:只是一种营销手段
今年大肆宣传“即时批准房屋按揭”的许多贷方和经纪人需做好思想准备。事实上,房贷申请者不会统统获得批准。 原因是,与美国不同,加拿大还没有使用以电子方式自动验证您的收入,就业和定金的技术。这意味着,即使不是全部,大多数“即时批准”也将被过度炒作以电子方式交付给借款人的有条件批准。“有条件的”意味着放款人必须仍然使用人力检查您的文件,有时还会派出资产估价师,这两者都不是即刻能做到的。

按揭还款违约案将上升
当失业率从周期的低点开始上升,消费者无力偿债达到多年来的高点,债务偿还所消耗的可支配收入百分比创新高。当收益率曲线反转预示着经济增长放缓时,那就是您应该开始担心房屋按揭贷款利率上升时自己的还款能力。 这些已经开始发生,未来一年还不会造成金融灾难,但与明年12月份相比,现今的90天房屋按揭贷款违约率仅为0.23%,这还是相当不错的。



固定-浮动利率差距将变小
五年固定利率以低于浮动利率的反常现象将在2020年结束,至少会暂时结束。 五年期固定利率的平均水平比今天的平均浮动利率低约15个基点,而固定利率将重回榜首。 这将促使一小部分借款人从五年期固定利率抵押贷款转换为浮动利率抵押贷款。从长远来看,固定--浮动之间差额将保持比以往更窄并且会更频繁地变为负数,这意味着您将为长期低固定利率的“放心丸”支付更少的费用。

2020年其他可能发生的变化
以下各种情况全部同时发生的机率较低,但不排除其中一个或多个的发生:
* 那些更新房贷者,可能会豁免压力测试,监管机构可能会更改压力测试的最低合格率。
* 联邦政府首次购房者奖励计划可能会使更多伦多,温哥华和维多利亚的购房者入市。
* 银行监管机构可能会批准一些人有能力的购买者入市,他们仅需支付10%首付,房屋价格超过100万元。 (当前购房者必须首付20%。)
* 使用省级信用合作社规避联邦抵押压力测试的人数可能会明显增加。
* 全国平均房价的增长速度应接近加拿大房地产协会(Canadian Real Estate Realty)预测的6.2%,而不是分析师一致预期的3%。

对于所有房屋按揭贷款者而言,无论上述情况如何,2020年都将是美好的一年。

Robert McLister是intelli Mortgage的房屋按揭的规划员,也是RateSpy.com的创始人。您可以通过@RateSpy在Twitter上关注他。
 



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