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疫情可能影响加国房贷利率的下调




(大中报/096.ca讯):根据CBC的报道,经济学家正忙于计算关于中国新冠状病毒爆发产生的经济损失,但出乎意料的是,有一个令人感到不幸中一丝安慰,就是房屋按揭贷款利率可能会下降。

房贷固定利率和浮动利率的计算基于多种因素,但加拿大房贷固定利率的基准是以加拿大政府5年期债券收益率来设定的。

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债券的价格及其收益率方向相反。因此,当对债券的需求增加时,他们支付的金额就会减少,因为贷方不必为寻找债务的买方提供同样好的交易。

当人们感到恐惧时,债券的价格往往会上涨,这种情况正好是目前的局势,人们担心新冠状病毒扩散而影响投资收益,所以更多企业或个体将资金注入政府债券,寻求安全避风港,这种大量集中的购买行为压低了债券的收益率。

今年初,加拿大5年期政府债券的收益率约为1.7%。本周,它一度跌至1.3%以下的低点。如此短时间内下跌40个基点是很惊人的,这样的反应将逐渐渗入房贷抵押市场。

房屋贷款经纪公司Canwise Financial行政总裁、同时也是利率比较网站RateHub.ca的联合创始人莱尔德(James Laird)表示,加拿大固定利率贷款正在下降,目前提供5年期固定贷款的最佳利率是一些信托公司提供的2.64%,大银行利率则为2.74%,这比一个月前降了约0.1%~0.2%。

在此期间债券收益率下降了约40个基点,这意味着放贷者迄今仅将其中的四分之一左右的利润转嫁给了消费者,但莱尔德相信如果债券生收益率持续保持低点,会有更多房贷出借者降低其利率。



莱尔德说,加拿大的利率环境将逐渐走低是个趋势。加拿大央行虽然目前还是将基准利率维持不变,但本月最新的谈话已经透露不排除降息的可能性。

浮动房贷利率是根据央行的基准利率来设定的,目前交易员们认为,到2020年底,至少有80%的机率会降息。这意味着拥有浮动贷款利率的房贷户也很快会享受到房贷压力减轻的福音了。

一般情况下,放贷者都希望在春天购房季节中看到快速增长的交易量,莱尔德发现通常是在2月中旬或3月之间降息,无论债券的发行规模如何。

中国新型冠状病毒的大爆发会导致这种举动的实施会比预期来得更早,更剧烈。



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