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面对冠状病毒传染,为什么加拿大拒绝下旅行禁令
Research supports Canada’s decision to reject a coronavirus travel ban




(大中报/096.ca)加拿大环球邮报日前报道说,当世界卫生组织宣布新型冠状病毒爆发为公共卫生紧急事件时,该机构的总干事的一番话震惊了全世界:不要对中国人施加旅行限制。

但第二天,美国宣布对过去14天内前往中国的外国人关闭了边境。其他国家,如澳大利亚,新西兰,日本和新加坡迅速实施了自己的旅行禁令。

今天你也许关心的话题:

研究:首次流感感染决定你终生抵抗病毒的能力
渥太华文件保密有问题 2019年泄密高达五千次
5月起 约克区有12条路将轮流安装测速摄像头

想要阅读与本文有关的话题?请点击本文末的链接!



加拿大卫生部长帕蒂·哈伊杜(Patty Hajdu)表示,渥太华将听从世卫组织的建议,不搞旅行禁令。因为“没有证据”表明旅行禁令能有效地遏制病毒的爆发。渥太华此举得到了北京的称赞。

过去病毒爆发的研究发现,旅行限制可以延迟(但不能阻止)新病原体的入境和传播。旅行禁令还可能对那些努力控制疫情国家的经济造成毁灭性的打击,这可能会使其他国家今后更不愿意披露神秘爆发的新疫情。

约克大学全球战略实验室主任,全球战略教授霍夫曼(Steven Hoffman)说:“旅行禁令通常不起作用,因为如果人们想旅行,他们总有办法出门。旅行禁令实际上破坏了公共卫生机构的应对措施,因为这使得在疫情暴发中更难跟踪病例。”

多伦多大学健康网络的传染病专家波格(Isaac Bogoch)同意霍夫曼的观点。历史证明,出行限制只是“缓解一下传染速度,但不会阻止传染”。

随着武汉肺炎这一新病毒(称为2019-nCoV)的迅速传播,波格说:“我们正处于前所未有的时代。 ...我认为以一种或另一种方式教条都是不对的。”

根据意大利研究人员的一项研究,在2009年H1N1流感流行期间,那些拒绝墨西哥旅行者入境的国家仅将传染的时间平均延迟了大约三天,相比之下,墨西哥外出旅行的人数却下降了40%。

2006年,哈佛大学和麻省理工学院的研究人员发现,在2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击之后颁布的临时飞行禁令将流感季节的高峰期推迟了约13天。研究报告认为,旅行禁令是否有效“仍然是个未知数。”



当年发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》上的另一项研究报告使用了数学模型来预测如果病毒在人与人之间很容易传播,旅行限制将如何影响流感在美国的传播。

报告指出:“模拟表明,在高度流动的人群中,在发现爆发后限制旅行可能会稍微延迟爆发的时间,而不会影响最终的发病人数。"

约翰·霍普金斯大学健康安全中心(Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)的急诊医生和资深学者托纳(Eric Toner)说,当一种新疾病开始在全球蔓延时,政客们面临着公众要求关闭边界的巨大压力。

托纳说:“即使有人一遍又一遍地证明旅行禁令不起作用,人们还是凭直觉认为旅行禁令会起作用。发布旅行禁令在政治上具有吸引力,但这并不是正确的选择。”

在一个多月的时间里,2019-nCoV病毒席卷了中国,造成至少425人死亡,2万多人患病,并扩散到包括加拿大在内的几个个国家。安省和卑诗省均有确诊病例。除中国外,有两人死亡。一名在香港,另一名在菲律宾。

为美国旅游禁令辩解,美国疾病预防控制中心国家免疫与呼吸疾病中心主任梅森尼尔(Nancy Messonnier)说,成千上万的人对这种病毒没有免疫力。

她说:“在面对前所未有的威胁之前,我们做出了一项积极的决定,即现在行动最有可能减缓病毒的危害。这就是下(旅游禁令)的理由。”

在2014年西非埃博拉(Ebola)疫情期间,加拿大是停止向几内亚,塞拉利昂和利比里亚发放签证的少数富裕国家之一。

当年执政的联邦保守党政府的这一决定受到了世卫组织官员的温和指责。保守党指出,在SARS疫情暴发之后,加拿大帮助修订了WHO的《国际卫生条例》。SARS造成44名加拿大人死亡。



2003年4月,世界卫生组织发布了旅行建议,敦促人们除非绝对必要,否则不要前往多伦多。根据SARS委员会的最终报告,尽管WHO在一周后取消了该建议,但“WTO的这番话具有持久的经济影响”。

SARS委员会发现,多伦多估计损失了9.5亿加元,其中5.7亿加元来自旅游业。

2005年修订的《国际卫生条例》说,参与签署这一条例的国家应该采用世界卫生组织在疫情爆发期间建议的措施。问题是,世界卫生组织无权对那些不理睬WTO建议的国家进行惩罚。

尽管加拿大政府没有禁止从中国来的旅客,但渥太华计划从疫情爆发中心城市武汉空运的大约300名加拿大人回国,并把他们在安大略省特伦顿(Trenton)的一个空军基地隔离14天。美国,澳大利亚和其他几个国家已经这样做了。

托纳说:“我认为隔离14天可能比一刀切的旅游禁令要好一些,但这也可能是过激的措施。”他补充说,要求遣返的旅行者在家中隔离并与公共卫生部门保持联系以防发病可能同样有效。




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