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武汉肺炎疫情之联想


                                 

(大中报/096.ca特稿):武汉锁城、湖北封疆,武汉新冠状病毒疫情患者上周末已突破1万3千多人、短短几天病患数目的增长由每日一千,迅速越过每日两千达三千(发稿时确诊数已破两万),官方发表的死亡率2.2%与学界的数据11%相差甚远。疫情超过当年SARS的传播速度,已遍及全国包括西藏在内的所有行政区域,并漫向欧亚美非大洋洲令全球沦陷。欧美数国正积极派机撤侨,俄、朝、蒙等国关闭了与中国的边界;老美不但在两周内不让自己的国民赴中国、甚至不允许两周内去过中国的任何国籍的人入境美国。因为疫情,包括中国在内的全球股市齐蹉,中国央行虽紧急注入1.2万亿流动性,但春节后开盘上证和深指双双下跌超过8%、市值蒸发12兆。WHO也修正了原先的判断,终于将武汉肺炎疫情宣布为“国际关注的公共卫生紧急事件”,恐慌已变实情。

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面对疫情,各种信息纷至沓来。有执政党地方卫健官员被撤职的,有武汉医院防护物资短缺的,也有抱怨捐赠物资及发放渠道不畅的,更有各处歧视避难在外的武汉及湖北人情事的人性之恶,以及本地发酵华人/亚裔恐惧症和华人为自保而互相踩踏。湖北医院有医护人员累得靠椅闭眼或席地卧躺,香港医护界却趁危发动大罢工;药店前出现罕见的长龙,各地自设路障、连小区和村口都有人把守盘查;当专业人员不敢开口露真情(最先披露疫情之8名医生的治安告诫书尚未撤消),而卫生官员却一问三不知的情形下,不知如何想象疫区及内地是怎样的态势。

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当内地领导所谓的亲自过问亲自指挥,只是做秀倒也罢了。真要如此,说明内地的行政结构、地方各层级间以及与中央的角色跟权责的划分就太成问题了。武汉市长周先旺说,“作为地方政府,我只有在授权下才能发布疫情”。这里透出两个问题。其一,市长的授权来自市民还是所谓的上峰?这也是现代文明政体与封建及专制政体的分野;其二,行政首长或官员的职权行使,缺乏现代管理学和管理体制的界定或者说无法可依。如今已是建国第71个年头,岂是农民起义苏维埃草创期可比。



厘清上述问题,对于世风日下的官员怠政及不作为、或者是贪污腐败,以及因此而引出的所有荒唐离奇,也就不难应付了。钟南山曾说过,经对抗SARS形成的有效规范之坚持,应该不会有类似疫情失控的重现,否则会再来。昔日北京的SARS过去17年了,并非国人不长记性,而大概是体制及文化因素无法传承民族优秀的遗产,在世风和道德水准日下的情景下,难能进步惟有倒退。从SARS到武汉肺炎,两次疫情的爆发都是缘起于隐匿信息,除了制度的原因,内地的官本位惯性、不对人民负责而一味讨好上峰、以及报喜不报忧的造假习气,在在表明祖籍国的文化也出了大问题。

立法禁止食用野生动物也好,追寻新型Coronavirus源头、研制疫苗及制药也罢,怎么都不及将注意力放在根本性的体制之审视改造及文化进化上。不仅北京冬季奥运会可能要黄,就连东京的夏季奥运会也悬了。在美中贸协压力以及原本就拿不回投入之一带一路的窘况下,把经济必定下行的缘由归扯到武汉肺炎疫情的影响头上,也许是一条出路或机会。但问题是,眼前疫情的发展和扩散尚望不到尽头(有传温州和杭州也开始封城,长江流域悬了),如何收场,以及如何应对由此而引发的社会矛盾和政治经济的震荡?内地当局除了强力维稳一途,恐尚无应对之策,要不何以由意识形态主官担任中央抗疫小组副首领、以及由警察首脑高调参与小组。真不知这场人祸成分占优的疫情会如何演变?祈愿上苍护佑国人。




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