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主将无能,三军遭殃! 习近平正面对严峻疫情和政治危机




(大中报/096.ca讯):根据华尔街日报的报道,面对迄今已导致全球900多人死亡、超过4万人感染的新型冠状病毒疫情,中国国家主席习近平动员了庞大的国家机器。

中国已将诸多城市完全封闭,在数天内就建起了几家新医院,并把军医和党员派到抗疫前线。习近平将这种巨大的努力比作战争。

上述种种措施一方面旨在抗击新冠病毒疫情,另一方面也是为了在第二条战线上赢得一场战斗——抑制自2012年他上台以来最炽烈的公众怒火。

今天你也许关心的话题:

去武汉的公民记者陈秋实不见了!又一个讲实话的被“强制隔离”了?
从蒋彦永医生到李文亮医生,什么比武汉肺炎更可怕?
从江城李文亮的死到羊城孙志刚的亡

想要阅读与本文有关的话题?请点击本文末的链接!



习近平上周公开宣称这是一场疫情防控的“人民战争”,承诺要惩罚任何不服从政府命令的人。上周五,他与美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)通电话时再度使用了“人民战争“这个词,称他坚信中国将赢得胜利。

习近平还面临民众对政府应对这场疫情方式的愤怒和不满,此类情绪在上周五因李文亮死于新冠肺炎而发酵。年轻医生李文亮是率先就此次疫情发出警告的人之一,却为此受到了训诫。

在疫情爆发的中心湖北省,医院人满为患,医疗物资和食品供应匮乏,约6,000万人正在接受隔离,这是有史以来涉及人数最多的隔离措施。新型冠状病毒于去年12月首次出现在湖北省省会、工业城市武汉。



虽然民众的怒火主要集中在地方政府身上,人们指责地方政府试图掩盖疫情,但许多人也在发泄对审查制度和习近平在过去七年里形成的僵化、集中的权威的愤怒。

加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)研究中国互联网的学者肖强表示:“这不仅仅是一场公共卫生危机。习近平似乎也在应对一场内部政治危机。”中国国务院新闻办公室没有立即回覆记者的置评请求。

习近平对中国经济放缓、美中贸易战和香港亲民主抗议活动的处理方式已经受到中国部分政界和商界精英的批评。他在这些问题上主要指责外国敌对势力,试图以此争取公众支持。

新型冠状病毒疫情则不同。许多中国人直接感受到了威胁,这推动了一场危机的爆发。这场危机触及了习近平所称的强有力领导的核心,以及被他当作世界典范来倡导的威权体制。

中国政府的审查人员正在努力压制异见。疫情若能迅速结束,其政治影响将会有限。但眼下疫情持续蔓延,这不仅威胁到习近平无限期执政的计划,还有可能极大损害公众对中共的支持。

清华大学教授徐章润上周五在接受采访时说,围绕习近平的神话已经破灭。



“人民战争”一词最早是毛泽东主席用来描述动员全体人民的军事战略。习近平已重新启用毛泽东时代的许多形象和词汇,确立了自己继毛泽东之后最强领导人的地位。

到目前为止,习近平的军事腔调似乎对缓解许多中国人的焦虑没什么作用,一些人越来越多地将此次疫情与习近平政府的政策联系在一起,这些政策导致1976年毛泽东去世后出现的相对自由发生倒退。

最近几天,武汉的许多人都在询问,为什么习近平没有亲自视察危机。中共第二号领导人国务院总理李克强已被任命为疫情工作领导小组组长。1月27日,李克强前往武汉,戴着口罩和防护装备视察当地医院。

第二天,中央电视台播放了习近平在北京会见世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)总干事的画面。习近平表示,他在亲自指挥、亲自部署中国的疫情防控。

在随后近一周时间内,习近平都没有出现在中央电视台的晚间新闻节目或中共官方喉舌《人民日报》的头版文章中。在他没有公开露面的这段时间,公众的困惑和愤怒与日俱增。

在中国的社交媒体平台上,审查人员难以遏制铺天盖地的评论,在李文亮去世后,这些评论似乎愈演愈烈。李文亮成为了在网上呼吁言论自由的民间英雄。



在社交媒体平台微博(Weibo)上发表的一篇帖子称:几十年来,他们一直在操纵公众舆论;他们堵住了我们的嘴,但能蒙蔽我们的心吗?他们在骗谁?

社交媒体上流传着一张李文亮戴着口罩的图片,图上写着:从今天起你们也许就联系不到我了。

中国记者表示,为了淡化李文亮去世的影响,负责监管中国互联网的中国国家互联网信息办公室(Cyberspace Administration of China, 简称:国家网信办)要求新闻网站只发布来自官方渠道的信息。记者们说,国家网信办上周五下令加强控制,防止人们利用李文亮医生的死亡攻击体制、政党和政府。

前北京邮电大学讲师许志永在网上发表文章称,医学救不了中国:民主救中国。他是一位杰出的中国民权活动人士,但他很少如此公开发表言论。许志永没有回覆记者的置评请求。

许多中国人支持习近平自上而下的领导风格,称中国需要强大、中央集权的政府来打击腐败,以及避免长期性经济放缓。

不过,也有人说,李文亮之死反映了习近平治下对异见的压制,以及忠诚和意识形态的重要性超过了主动性和公开辩论。以这种观点看,习近平的威权统治促使下级官员压制坏消息,许多人将新型冠状病毒的传播归咎于此。



面对民众的愤怒,中国当局不同寻常地做出迅速反应。中国政府反腐败机构中国国家监察委员会上周五表示,决定派出调查组赴湖北省武汉市,就群众反映的涉及李文亮医生的有关问题作全面调查。据一名知情人士透露,习近平亲自签署了这一决定。

在中国国内,一些人怀疑习近平的“缺席”是一种策略——如果抗疫取得成功,功劳归他,而如果任务失败,则可以把责任推给其他人。

华盛顿智库战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的中国政治问题专家Jude Blanchette说:“从冠状病毒疫情到香港问题,再到中美贸易战,习近平一直用代理人来处理这些问题,这样的话,当这些问题扩大时,他可以责怪别人。”

1月底,武汉市市长周先旺试图将责任归咎于北京方面,他在接受中央电视台新闻频道采访时表示,只有在获得授权后,他才能披露新型冠状病毒构成的威胁。在那之后,习近平决定派一名值得信赖的政治老手前往武汉,帮助领导疫情防控工作。

在武汉,政府告诉当地警察、社区工作人员、医务人员以及其他所有参与防疫抗疫工作的人,表现出众可获得晋升的机会。中国人力资源和社会保障部主管的一家报纸上周发表的一篇文章称,这反映了疫情防控“战时状态”的战略需要。



自1月23日武汉和另外两个城市被封城以来,习近平已经向武汉派出了约1,400名军医。他还命令军队帮助分发医疗物资,并要求军队医院和研究机构提供援助。

据了解习近平指示的人士说,习近平认为军队的参与以及整体的“战时”措施能够让不安的民众放心,其中一些人已经居家隔离两周了。

封城让人感到意外。1月19日,当武汉地方政府举行春节庆祝活动时,出于对感染病例激增的担忧,中国国家卫生健康委员会派出了一个医疗专家组前往武汉。

该医疗专家组得出结论,此次疫情比地方政府公开承认的程度更为严重。这个专家组是由一位17年前参加过抗击非典型肺炎(简称SARS)疫情的资深人士领导。据一位知情武汉官员透露,专家组对中国最高领导层提出了建议,当中包括在必要时封锁这座城市。

这位官员称,但人们都认为这是备选计划。他说,即使在SARS期间,也没有一座城市被封,经济代价太大了。他表示,隔离武汉的决定出人意料;该决定是由习近平下达的。



许多外国卫生专家称,这种大范围的隔离很少有效,反而会给未感染者带来不必要的痛苦。

愤怒、沮丧和恐惧情绪在许多被困在被封城市的中国人中蔓延,引发了罕见的怨气爆发。

在中国社交媒体上疯传的一段视频显示,李克强在访问期间问群众,他们是否习惯了这种隔离。

有一个人用异常挑衅的腔调对这位中国第二号领导人说,不习惯也要习惯。

从那以后,中国政府已指示武汉当地共产党员安抚群众,并前往被感染者的家中。而该市交通几近瘫痪,让人们很难遵从这一指令。

当地一位税务官员表示:“作为一名党员,我当然愿意站出来,但问题是怎么做?”

中国官员正在竞相建立他们所称的“战时机制”,比如控制医疗用品及其他抗击冠状病毒疫情所需重要物资的价格。

在这场战役的前线,武汉的医务工作者说他们极度缺乏医疗用品。一家中型医院的医生说,其所在医院没有收到来自政府的任何医疗物资。该医院正完全依靠捐赠。

这位医生对有关让人们自己居家隔离的指令持批评态度。他说:“即使在像我们这样的大医院,都仍然缺乏物资供应;老百姓怎么能在家自我隔离呢?”




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