因恶性加息 深陷困境的加国中产阶层要为央行失误买单（观点 中英对照）
Opinion: Canadians brace for more financial pain as BoC continues its shock and awe campaign to rein in inflation
来源: 大中网/096.ca 南茜(Nancy Jin)
加国消费指数从2021年4月的4.6% 一路飙升至今年6月8.1%的39年新高，倍显通货膨胀已一发不可收拾。尽管早期迹象表明通胀不会是暂时的，但央行却未能及时加息，直到今年3月消费指数升至惊人的5.7%，央行才意识到为时已晚，它已对通胀失去了控制。消费指数的急剧上升对央行来说简直是一场噩梦，直接威胁到通过其30年来成功地控制通胀之业绩所建立起来的良好信誉。严峻的局势之下，央行使出全身解数，不惜采取会给加国经济，房市和普通加国人士带来巨大困境的严厉而无情的货币紧缩政策试图将通胀率降至2%的目标范围。
今天你也许关心的话题：
加拿大7月GDP增长仅0.1% 失业人数增加 经济增长显著放缓
安省考虑让老态龙钟的皮克林核电站再工作30年
贾宁扬播客脱口秀：中国人在海外的实力有多大？看看北美中文媒体有多怂就一目了然了（2022年9月28日）
Canada's red-hot inflation has seen the rate of CPI soaring from 4.6% in April 2021 to a new 39-year high of 8.1% in June. Despite early signs showing that inflation would not be a temporary blip, the central bank was slow to raise interest rates until the CPI reached a stunning rate of 5.7% in Mar. 2022, when the central bank realized it was losing grip on inflation. The sharp upward trajectory of CPI inflation created a nightmare for the central bank, threatening its credibility built by three decades-long of keeping inflation in control. It prompted the bank to take an all-out fight to get it back to the 2% target, resorting to the draconian money-tightening policy that would inflict tremendous pain on the economy, the housing market, and the average Canadians.
在继三月份以来的几次加息之后，央行无视经济学家们的警告再次采取令人惊诧之举，在今年7月将利率上调整整一个百分点。这一举措让很多经济学界人士目瞪口呆，因为在加国债务额屡创新高的情况下大举加息会给加国经济带来重大间接影响。除了数十万人失业之外，它还会使金融和房地产市场遭受重创，使债务累累的加拿大人士不堪重负。4月份进行的一项民意调查发现，四分之一的房产主表示，如果抵押贷款利率进一步上升，他们将不得不将房屋出售。 此外，五分之一的加拿大人预计他们的抵押贷款、债务和财务状况会受到“重大负面影响”。
After a series of hikes since Mar., the BOC took the most shocking move by hiking its key rate by a whole percentage point in July, disregarding economists' warning that it would trigger a recession. The bank's move has left many economists dumbfounded, who believe that BOC's aggressive rate hikes, which came at the record of Canadian indebtedness, could cause significant "collateral damage" to the economy. Apart from hundreds of thousands of job losses, it will weigh on the financial and housing market, pushing struggling Canadians with heavy debt loads to the edge. A poll conducted in April found that one-quarter of homeowners say they will have to sell their homes if mortgage rates go up further. Moreover, one in five Canadians expects a "significant negative impact" on their overall mortgage, debt, and financial situation.
但加国央行对残酷加息造成的经济困境无动于衷，而它更为关切的是加国公众对通胀趋势的看法。让央行更为担心的是失控的对通胀预期所带来的极难打破的一系列连锁反应，即工资，价格的螺旋式上升和其所造成的不可避免的顽固通胀效应。但加拿大会议委员会最近的一项调查发现，四分之三的加拿大人预计通胀在三年内仍将高于央行2%的目标。央行的信誉是控制通胀预期的关键，而央行的数据显示公众已逐渐失去了它能再度控制通胀这头巨兽的信心。急于扭转局势并显示对控制1983年来最险恶的通胀下了狠心的央行采取了“震惊和敬畏”的心理策略以期给企业和消费者造成心理震撼。在继 7 月意外加息 100 个基点之后， 银行在 9 月再次加息 75 个基点，并表示年底前将进一步加息。
But the central bank couldn't care less about the pain brought by the brutal rate hikes. It is more concerned about the de-anchored inflation expectations, fearing it may lead to the hard-to-break wage-price spiral and entrenched inflation. A recent Conference Board of Canada survey found three-quarters of Canadians expect inflation to still be above target in three years. The bank's credibility is the key to keeping inflation expectations at bay, but its data showed a declining public trust in its ability to rein in the stubborn beast. The bank has used a "shock and awe" strategy to amplify the psychological impacts on the business and consumers as it desperately tries to turn the tide and show it is deadly serious about taming the worst inflation since 1983. Following a surprise 100-basis-point hike in July, the bank raised another 75-basis-point in Sept and said more hikes ahead by the end of the year.
信誉受损的央行竟采取更无情的手段来防止工资价格螺旋式上升。 加拿大央行行长 Tiff Macklem 敦促商界领袖不要提高工人的工资，称他们不该期望通胀会长期保持高位。 他的言论引发了工会领袖们不满，谴责央行竟然在许多工人生计难以维持的情况下竟提出不要加薪的要求。 他们认为，如此残酷的货币紧缩政策将严重损害工薪阶层的生活，影响最弱势群体的福祉。
With its credibility at stake, the bank has resorted to more desperate attempts to prevent the wage-price spiral. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem urged business leaders not to raise workers' wages, saying they should not expect inflation to remain high. His comments have frustrated union leaders, who admonished the bank for urging workers to refrain from wage increases when many workers struggle to make ends meet. They believe the rapid monetary tightening would cause substantial damage to the quality of life of the working class, harming the well-being of the most vulnerable.
如果央行早些采取措施遏制通胀，它本可以避免采取如此“急刹车”式的过分经济干预。央行行长在其声明中曾承认未能及时提高借贷成本以控制通胀。但正是加国经济和中产阶层要为央行的这一代价高昂的失误买单。随着央行竭力挽回受损的抗通胀声誉而继续实施货币紧缩以抬高利率，加国人士应做好准备面临更为艰难的财务困境。
The bank could have avoided the excessive interventions designed to "slam the brakes" on Canada's economy had it raised interest rates earlier. The governor admitted its error in a statement that the bank had waited too long to begin raising borrowing costs. But the Canadian economy and the middle class suffer the collateral damage caused by the bank's costly errors. Canadians should brace for more pain down the road as the bank continues its policy of quantitative tightening, ramping up its efforts to restore its eroded inflation-fighting credibility.
今天你也许关心的话题：
加拿大7月GDP增长仅0.1% 失业人数增加 经济增长显著放缓
安省考虑让老态龙钟的皮克林核电站再工作30年
贾宁扬播客脱口秀：中国人在海外的实力有多大？看看北美中文媒体有多怂就一目了然了（2022年9月28日）
Canada's red-hot inflation has seen the rate of CPI soaring from 4.6% in April 2021 to a new 39-year high of 8.1% in June. Despite early signs showing that inflation would not be a temporary blip, the central bank was slow to raise interest rates until the CPI reached a stunning rate of 5.7% in Mar. 2022, when the central bank realized it was losing grip on inflation. The sharp upward trajectory of CPI inflation created a nightmare for the central bank, threatening its credibility built by three decades-long of keeping inflation in control. It prompted the bank to take an all-out fight to get it back to the 2% target, resorting to the draconian money-tightening policy that would inflict tremendous pain on the economy, the housing market, and the average Canadians.
在继三月份以来的几次加息之后，央行无视经济学家们的警告再次采取令人惊诧之举，在今年7月将利率上调整整一个百分点。这一举措让很多经济学界人士目瞪口呆，因为在加国债务额屡创新高的情况下大举加息会给加国经济带来重大间接影响。除了数十万人失业之外，它还会使金融和房地产市场遭受重创，使债务累累的加拿大人士不堪重负。4月份进行的一项民意调查发现，四分之一的房产主表示，如果抵押贷款利率进一步上升，他们将不得不将房屋出售。 此外，五分之一的加拿大人预计他们的抵押贷款、债务和财务状况会受到“重大负面影响”。
After a series of hikes since Mar., the BOC took the most shocking move by hiking its key rate by a whole percentage point in July, disregarding economists' warning that it would trigger a recession. The bank's move has left many economists dumbfounded, who believe that BOC's aggressive rate hikes, which came at the record of Canadian indebtedness, could cause significant "collateral damage" to the economy. Apart from hundreds of thousands of job losses, it will weigh on the financial and housing market, pushing struggling Canadians with heavy debt loads to the edge. A poll conducted in April found that one-quarter of homeowners say they will have to sell their homes if mortgage rates go up further. Moreover, one in five Canadians expects a "significant negative impact" on their overall mortgage, debt, and financial situation.
但加国央行对残酷加息造成的经济困境无动于衷，而它更为关切的是加国公众对通胀趋势的看法。让央行更为担心的是失控的对通胀预期所带来的极难打破的一系列连锁反应，即工资，价格的螺旋式上升和其所造成的不可避免的顽固通胀效应。但加拿大会议委员会最近的一项调查发现，四分之三的加拿大人预计通胀在三年内仍将高于央行2%的目标。央行的信誉是控制通胀预期的关键，而央行的数据显示公众已逐渐失去了它能再度控制通胀这头巨兽的信心。急于扭转局势并显示对控制1983年来最险恶的通胀下了狠心的央行采取了“震惊和敬畏”的心理策略以期给企业和消费者造成心理震撼。在继 7 月意外加息 100 个基点之后， 银行在 9 月再次加息 75 个基点，并表示年底前将进一步加息。
But the central bank couldn't care less about the pain brought by the brutal rate hikes. It is more concerned about the de-anchored inflation expectations, fearing it may lead to the hard-to-break wage-price spiral and entrenched inflation. A recent Conference Board of Canada survey found three-quarters of Canadians expect inflation to still be above target in three years. The bank's credibility is the key to keeping inflation expectations at bay, but its data showed a declining public trust in its ability to rein in the stubborn beast. The bank has used a "shock and awe" strategy to amplify the psychological impacts on the business and consumers as it desperately tries to turn the tide and show it is deadly serious about taming the worst inflation since 1983. Following a surprise 100-basis-point hike in July, the bank raised another 75-basis-point in Sept and said more hikes ahead by the end of the year.
信誉受损的央行竟采取更无情的手段来防止工资价格螺旋式上升。 加拿大央行行长 Tiff Macklem 敦促商界领袖不要提高工人的工资，称他们不该期望通胀会长期保持高位。 他的言论引发了工会领袖们不满，谴责央行竟然在许多工人生计难以维持的情况下竟提出不要加薪的要求。 他们认为，如此残酷的货币紧缩政策将严重损害工薪阶层的生活，影响最弱势群体的福祉。
With its credibility at stake, the bank has resorted to more desperate attempts to prevent the wage-price spiral. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem urged business leaders not to raise workers' wages, saying they should not expect inflation to remain high. His comments have frustrated union leaders, who admonished the bank for urging workers to refrain from wage increases when many workers struggle to make ends meet. They believe the rapid monetary tightening would cause substantial damage to the quality of life of the working class, harming the well-being of the most vulnerable.
如果央行早些采取措施遏制通胀，它本可以避免采取如此“急刹车”式的过分经济干预。央行行长在其声明中曾承认未能及时提高借贷成本以控制通胀。但正是加国经济和中产阶层要为央行的这一代价高昂的失误买单。随着央行竭力挽回受损的抗通胀声誉而继续实施货币紧缩以抬高利率，加国人士应做好准备面临更为艰难的财务困境。
The bank could have avoided the excessive interventions designed to "slam the brakes" on Canada's economy had it raised interest rates earlier. The governor admitted its error in a statement that the bank had waited too long to begin raising borrowing costs. But the Canadian economy and the middle class suffer the collateral damage caused by the bank's costly errors. Canadians should brace for more pain down the road as the bank continues its policy of quantitative tightening, ramping up its efforts to restore its eroded inflation-fighting credibility.
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