中英对照:恐惧情绪是抵抗通胀之大敌
Inflation could be self-fulfilling prophecy
来源: 大中报 南茜(Nancy Jin)
随着消费价格指数涨幅超过预期并导致食品,能源及住房价格飙升,通胀已引起广泛关注成为加国经济的紧迫事宜。随着日常生活支出和债务偿还支出的激增,家庭预算负担加重,给越来越多的毫无储蓄的家庭造成财务困境。但通胀的危害不仅仅限于家庭财务支出,它会给大众造成通胀恐惧心理,造成人为提高物价之现象,使通胀进入恶性循环。
Inflation has emerged as a pressing issue in the Canadian economy as the consumer price index rises at a faster-than-expected pace, sending food, housing, and energy prices soaring. The surging day-to-day spending and debt payment expenses wreak havoc on the family budget, fueling financial woes for a growing number of households living paycheck to paycheck. But inflation not only threatens Canadians' financial wellbeing. It could bring about inflation psychology where a self-fulfilling prophecy further fuels the prices growth.
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消费者的心理素质在通胀周期中起着至关重要的作用。 生活支出上涨会引发对通胀的恐惧以及导致不理智的经济行为,从而使通胀加剧和进一步恶化。每当通胀威胁在即,历史上的通胀噩梦就会再度困扰消费者并引发恐慌情绪。恐惧情绪是抵抗通胀的最大劲敌。随着越来越多的人对价格升幅预测失去理性,员工和工会会要求提高工资,迫使企业将不断上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。消费者也会呈现疯狂购买行为,大肆购置并非急需物品。处于高度紧张状态的股市投资者也会使证券市场出现大幅动荡。这种失去理智的消费投资行为会给整体经济带来极大破坏,其后果包括失业率攀升和全面经济崩溃。
Consumers' state of mind plays a crucial role in the inflation cycle. Worries of runaway inflation grow as living costs spikes, driving up economic activities that lead to more persistent inflation. Historical trauma events could come back to haunt consumers whenever inflation threat looms large, reviving fears and causing fight and flight response. Fear is the worst enemy in fighting inflation. Amid prevalent misconceptions and unrealistic expectations of price growth, unions and employees may demand higher wages, pushing businesses to pass the rising costs onto consumers. Shoppers may engage in frantic buying behavior as they spend money immediately on a high volume of products. Investors may be on high alert, sending the securities market in volatility. Fear could cause more devastating economic consequences, including a sharp rise in unemployment and a full-blown recession.
1939 年至 1945 年间,中国发生了恶性通货膨胀,物价上涨了一千多倍。面临不断恶化的财政预算危机,腐败无能的国民党政府通过印钞来支付沉重的军费开支,从而引发了货币危机和极速恶化的通货膨胀。失去了对国民党政府以及流通货币的信心,老百姓抢购浪潮风起云涌,使通胀陷入恶性循环。在 1960 年代末和 70 年代初,美国经历了长期的高通胀,消费者价格的年增长率高达百分之十几。加拿大的通货膨胀也在 1970 年代和 80 年代初期失控,导致房屋贷款利率高达 20%以上。
Hyperinflation happened in China between 1939 and 1945, where prices rose by more than a thousandfold. Lacking its administrative capacity to fix soaring budget woes, the then corrupt Nationalist government resorted to money printing to pay the heavy military expenditure, sparking a currency crisis. Panic buying ensued as inflation fear went rampant, fueling a vicious cycle of inflation. In the late 1960s and early '70s, the United States endured chronic high inflation, with consumer prices rising at or near double-digit percentages from one year to the next. Inflation ran amok in the 1970s and early 80s in Canada, causing the mortgage rate to surpass 20%.
但经济学家们坚信加拿大极不可能出现这种失控的恶性通胀。目前所呈现生活支出的上涨与1940年中国的恶性通胀和几十年前美,加的双位数通胀率完全不可同日而语。加拿大央行也从导致长期高通胀率的货币政策失误中吸取了教训,并于1991年采用通胀目标制,既通过设置通胀率上线对通胀进行控制。自此,加国进入了三十年的通胀稳定期。在这三十年中,加拿大央行成功地将平均通胀率保持在2%以下,突发性的价格上涨极度罕见。大众对通胀率普遍乐观心态也是央行货币政策的良好信誉和抵抗通胀的声望的真实写照。
But economists believe that super-high inflation is extremely unlikely to reappear in the foreseeable future. The rise of current living costs is a far cry from the hyperinflation crisis in the 1940's China and the double-digit rate surge in North America decades earlier. The central bank has learned from its monetary policy mistakes that had caused the chronically high inflation. It adopted the inflation targeting regime in 1991, and since then, Canada's inflation entered thirty years of remarkably stable period. BOC has successfully kept inflation at an average of 2 percent over the past thirty years, with the sudden price hike a much rare event. Well-anchored inflation expectations have highlighted BOC's monetary policies' credibility and its inflation-fighting reputation.
控制通胀是加国央行的核心任务。央行认为当前的通胀主要原因为供货链瓶颈造成,并预计明年利率将回落至 2% 以下。央行已经采取行动,大幅减少政府债券购买计划。与此同时,随着大部分疫情援助项目的终止,联邦赤字正在下降。这些努力,以及 Statscan 报告的第三季度 GDP 增长远低于预期,应该缓解对通胀失控的担忧。
Keeping inflation under control is at the heart of BOC's mandate. It believes that the supply chain disruption has caused the current inflation and expects the rate to fall back to the 2% target next year. The central bank has already taken action by reducing its government bond-buying program. Meanwhile, the federal deficit is heading lower as the main pandemic aid programs come to a stop. These efforts, along with the Statscan report on the far-below-expected third-quarter GDP growth, should relieve runaway inflation fears.
相信当局有能力控制好通胀是消除大众恐惧和顾虑的契机。只有理性地对待通胀现象才能保证通胀率的顺利回落,并避免日后出现无法控制的通胀危机。
The trust in the monetary authorities' ability to rein in inflation is the key to calming the fear and anxiety. A rational reaction is essential to ensure a smooth adjustment to disinflation and avoid the bleak outcome of inflation crisis in the future.
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