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中英对照:政府工会要求三年大幅加薪 将引发刺激通胀之担心

PSAC pushing for high wages growth has a signaling effect for inflation expectations
来源: 大中报 南茜(Nancy Jin)
 
 
飙升的通胀率已成为工资谈判的焦点,并促使加拿大政府部门工会提出将于2022年为其11000工会成员索要大幅加薪。出于对高物价将导致消减购买力的担心,加拿大最大的工会之一政府工会认为工资涨幅应“紧跟”通胀率,提出连续三年,以每年4.5%的涨幅加薪。虽然10月份的消费指数显示目前通胀率略高于4.5%,加拿大银行认为这一通胀率是暂时性的,并将于明年底回落至2%。政府工会这一高于预期通胀率高调加薪要求为其他劳资谈判树立了危险的先例,致使经济学家们担心其将导致整体经济中出现很难打破的工资-物价螺旋性通货膨胀现象。
 
Soaring inflation has already made its way to the wage discussions, prompting the public sector union's plan to demand higher wages for its 110,000 members in 2022. Fear of losing purchase power due to rising prices, one of Canada's largest unions wants wages to "keep up" with soaring inflation by demanding a 4.5 percent annual wage hike throughout the three-year contract. While Oct CPI indicates inflation is above 4.5 percent now, the BoC expects it transitory and to fall back to 2 percent by the end of next year. The high profile wage hike demand based on outsized inflation expectations will set a dangerous precedent for other labor negotiations, prompting economists' concerns that it could drive wage-price spirals in the economy that are hard to stop.

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恶性工资-物价螺旋膨胀现象始于工会和雇员基于对”持续性”通胀的担心而要求提高工资,而这一要求将促企业为保证商业利润而提高商品和服务价格,以将工资上涨成本转嫁给消费者。同时,所增加的工资将会导致对市场上商品和服务的需求的增加,从而使物价进一步上升。飙升的消费指数反过来会引发对更高通胀的恐惧,因而导致进一步提高工资的要求。随着工资和物价互相追逐攀升,恶性循环周而复始,致使高通胀僵持不下。加拿大经济于70年代进入了工资-价格的恶性循环,在1970-1973年间,员工要求每年工资增长8%,而同时年通胀率高达两位数字,造成高失业率和严重经济衰退。
 
The dreaded wage-price spiral starts with unions and employees demanding higher wages out of fear for “sustained” inflation in the future. The demand will push business owners to raise prices, passing the rising costs to consumers to protect their profit margin. Meanwhile, growing workers' income prompts more need for goods and services, driving up prices. The CPI's spike will, in turn, lead to higher inflation expectations, leading to further demand for wage growth. As wages and expenses chase each other, it creates a vicious circle that leads to long-lasting episodes of high inflation. Canada's economy entered the wage-price spirals in the 1970s when the negotiated increase in base wage rates reached an average of eight percent annually between 1970 and 1973. The annual inflation hit double digits, creating high unemployment and deep economic recession.
 
从表面孤立地看加拿大统计局的通胀率报道的确令人不安,但目前的物价上涨与70年代的通胀不可同日而语。美联储和西方国家的中央银行普遍认为目前全球性的通胀是暂时的,是由疫情间供应链的瓶颈现象造成。由于疫情导致数月来的停工,区域经济内价格提升的现象在所难免。公共健康措施所导致的劳工和材料短缺和生产程序变更等都导致了局部性的价格上升。
 
While the StatsCan's inflation report, taken on face value and by isolation, seems unsettling, the rising in prices in the current economy is nothing like the 1970s. The fed and central banks in the West all believe that the current inflation in the global economy is temporary, created by pandemic-related supply chain bottleneck. Higher prices in sectors of the economy are inevitable after months of shutdown caused by the pandemic. Due to public health restrictions, parts and labor shortages caused by supply chain issues and changes in production practices have all contributed to price growth.

 
与50年前各经济领域内物价快速上涨的整体格局不同,目前的消费指数显示,三项主要指数的平均涨幅仅为2.7%,某些经济领域物价上升而一些部门价格下跌。消费物价指数的短期上涨并不意味着未来数年内将持续高通胀。美国政府在2008年金融危机后曾大笔支出扶持遭重创的经济,因而2010至2011年间出现了短期的通胀,但当消费指数达到4%,很快回落,并自此保持低水平。
 
Unlike a broad-based pattern where the price rose rapidly in all areas 50 years ago, only the rising costs in individual sectors have driven up the CPI today. The recent reports reveal that the average of three core inflation measures was only at 2.7 %, with prices increasing in some sectors of the economy while decreasing in others. The short-term run-up in CPI does not point to sustained high inflation in the years ahead. The US economy went through a brief episode of inflation in 2010-2011, after the US government's massive spending to stimulate the economy hit by the 2008 financial crisis. Inflation emerged as CPI reached 4 percent but soon subsided and has remained low ever since.
 
劳资商谈中往往会以消费指数涨幅作为工资涨幅的指南。但短期的物价增长并非是数年工资上涨的理由。对通胀率的准确预测是保证通胀顺利回落的关键。以每年2%的工资涨幅对付目前的通胀风暴对避免价格工资的螺旋膨胀大有裨益。从长远看,它将降低大批失业和经济衰退的风险,使工会员工和雇员们受益。
 
The CPI often serves as a guideline for collective bargaining negotiations. However, a short spell of price increases does not grant years of wage hikes. Well anchored inflation expectations are crucial in ensuring a smooth disinflation journey. The decision to ride the current inflation storm by seeking a 2 percent annual wage increase goes a long way towards averting the price wage spiral. It will benefit union members and employees in the long run by reducing the risks of massive unemployment and devastating recession.
 
     

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