加国地产（中英对照）房市预测大转弯：几次加息几乎不会给房市降温
A few rate hikes would barely make a dent in next year's housing market growth
来源: 大中报 南茜(Nancy Jin)
对利率将迅速上升的预期曾一度导致对2022年加国房市的负面看法。加国房市在低利率贷款下火爆增温，而飙升的利率无疑会给过热的房市浇上一盆冷水。在加拿大地产局CREA今年6月份做出2022年房市走势疲软的预测后，随着加国央行警告称由投机行为将导致升高的房市修正风险，有关来年房市将冷却的各种预测成为主导新闻。但分析家们近期对明年房市走向的预测却发生了180度大转弯。
Expectations of rapidly rising interest rates had prompted a widespread pessimistic view of Canada's housing market in 2022. Rising interest rates may cool down the market rally fueled by cheap debt, threatening to end Canada's severe case of real estate fever. After CREA forecasted a slow market growth of next year in June, forecasts of the market to lose steam dominated the news feed as the BoC warned over the increased risk of market correction due to speculators' activities. However, the prevailing views about the housing market have changed dramatically lately.
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加拿大历史上的低利率为那些渴望拥有房屋者提供了最佳时机。自去年 3 月加拿大央行将其主要利率下调至接近零以来，抵押贷款利率一直呈大幅下降趋势，金融机构竞相推出大幅折扣的抵押贷款利率以吸引客户。当加拿大最低可用的五年期固定利率为 1.39% 时，汇丰银行去年 12 月公布了可变抵押贷款利率为 0.99%，开创加拿大历史上首次低于 1% 利率之先河。与基础利率直接挂钩的 HELOC 还为房主获得第二抵押贷款提供了最优惠的条件。随之，激增的抵押贷款债务使今年贷款额一再打破交易量记录。随着房贷市场增长的是房地产市场的繁荣，房市的壮观增长使房屋销售和价格飙一路升至历史高。
Canada's historical low-interest rates have paved an easy path for those desiring homeownership. Since the BoC slashed its key interest rate to nearly zero last Mar, mortgage rates had been trending drastically lower, with financial institutions competing to roll out deep-discounted mortgage rates to woo customers. When the lowest available five-year fixed in Canada fetched 1.39%, HSBC posted a stunning landmark rate of the variable mortgage at 0.99 percent last Dec., the first offer below 1 percent in Canadian history. HELOC, tied to the prime rate, also provided the most favorable terms for homeowners to secure second mortgages. As a result, mortgage debt has exploded, repeatedly breaking the volume records this year. The spectacular housing boom accompanied the mortgage market growth, which saw home sales and prices soaring to historical highs.
但由于消费指数在 10 月份升至历史新高，通胀率的走高促使人们普遍预期加国央行将采取紧缩货币政策。央行声明最早将于 4 月开始上调基准利率后，一些分析家预计央行控制的主要贷款利率将于明年上调多达 5 个 25基点，从目前的 0.25%升至1.5%。受惊吓的债券市场投资者将其计入债券收益率，导致固定抵押贷款利率今年已平均飙升 60 个基点。毫无疑问，越来越快的加息会给抵押贷款持有人带来财务负担，尤其是房市投机和高额贷款者，迫使他们在需求减弱的情况下出售房产，从而加速市场下跌。加拿大央行对房地产市场调整风险的警告更进一步增长了房市的看跌情绪。
But soaring inflations – where CPI hit an 18-year high in October- had prompted the widespread expectations of the BoC to use tight monetary policies. In the wake of the central bank's statement that it would start to raise the benchmark rate as early as April, some analysts expected as many as five 25-basis point increase in the key lending rate next year, taking it to 1.5 percent from the current 0.25%. Spooked bond market investors have priced it into the bond yield, sending fixed-mortgage rates soaring by 60 basis points on average. Undoubtedly, the faster and sooner rate hikes will inflict financial pains on mortgage holders --particularly the speculators and overleveraged borrowers, forcing them to sell the properties into ebbing demand, precipitating the market decline. The BoC warnings over the increased risk of housing market correction had fueled the bearish market sentiment.
然而，经济学家认为金融市场对央行加息信号的反应过激。前加拿大央行副行长让·博伊文 (Jean Boivin) 表示，央行的利率政策旨在控制市场对通胀期望的预测。尽管通胀预期的调查反馈看似喜忧参半，但大多数企业人士在最近的季度调查中认为消费者价格的上升压力是暂时的。与此同时，被调查的消费者将两到五年后的通胀预期锁定在 3%。 “根据事件，我怀疑市场有些高估了加拿大央行的涨息行动，”首席经济学家道格波特说。 “但我认为，预计三次加息将使隔夜利率达到 1% 是合理的。”
However, economists believe that markets overreacted to BoC's rate hike signals. Monetary policies are essentially as much about managing inflation expectations as it is about changing interest rates, said Jean Boivin, a former BoC deputy governor. While studies on inflation expectations sent mixed signals, most businesses in a recent quarterly survey said the forces pushing up consumer prices were temporary. Meanwhile, consumers hold their inflation expectations firmly at 3 percent two to five years out. "Based on events, I suspect that the markets are somewhat overestimating how much the BoC will do," said Doug Porter, chief economist. "But I think it's reasonable to expect three rate hikes taking the overnight rate to one percent."
但分析家们认为，鉴于目前房市强劲的增长势头，只有四次以上的加息，既利息增长100个基点，才能使减缓市场需求。虽然明年房地产市场将迎来新的变化，但三次以下的加息不太可能对炙手可热的市场产生任何实质性的影响。 加拿大房产局 表示，由于低价货币持续时间比预期的要长得多，“加息对房市的威胁几乎不再存在。”地产局目前预测 2022 年的加国房市增长势头强劲，价格将飙升 18%。如果您计划明年买房，请期待另一个疫情推动下的卖方市场。
But analysts believe that it takes four or more rate hikes with 100 or more basis point increase to take some demand out of the housing market, given the current strong growth momentum. While the housing market will brace for changes next year, three rate hikes are unlikely to make a meaningful impact on the red hot market. With easy money persisting much longer than expected, "the threat of higher rates barely registers anymore," according to CREA, which forecasts strong growth momentum in 2022, with the price soaring by 18%. Expect another pandemic-fueled sellers' market if you plan to buy a home next year.
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